Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 33

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Vernice M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN 2, DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 9
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Montpellier		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	6.25	5.75	1.4	Watch
	7	5.75	1.35
	6.9	5.4	1.39
	6.64	5.61	1.42
	6.57	5.68	1.39	Watch
	6.5	5.5	1.33
	6.35	5.85	1.43	Watch
	6.9	5.4	1.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.64 ↓ (10.99)	5.62 ↓ (7.49)	1.39 ↑ (1.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
14.4%

Draw
17%

Paris Saint-Germain
68.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

8.7%

12.7%

78.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Montpellier's performance.

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paris Saint-Germain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	7.7%	82.1%

Montpellier - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 3 - 30%). PSG (votes: 7 - 70%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1 - PSG (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +1.25 - Montpellier (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (31 of 38 users predict this - 81.58%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.25% – 93.91%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 4 - 33.3%). PSG (votes: 8 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lecomte B. (C) 29. Tchato E. 47. Mouanga Y. 27. Omeragic B. 21. Mincarelli L. 12. Ferri J. 13. Chotard J. 19. Nzingoula R. 22. Fayad K. 44. Chennahi T. 70. Coulibaly T.	80. Tenas A. (G) 33. Zaire-Emery W. (C) 48. Tape A. 35. Beraldo L. 21. Hernandez L. 19. Lee Kang-In 24. Mayulu S. 49. Mbaye I. 14. Doue D. 9. Ramos G. 29. Barcola B.
Substitutes
16. Bertaud D. (G) 45. Dzodic S. 10. Khazri W. 4. Kouyate K. 2. Meite A. 41. Ndiaye J. 49. Ndollo Bille W. 77. Sacko F. 11. Savanier T.	34. Kamara N. 7. Kvaratskhelia K. 44. Ndjantou Q. 87. Neves J. 39. Safonov M. (G) 37. Slama W. 42. Zague Y.
Coaches
Camara Z.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', Beraldo L. 🟨,
42', Ferri J. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Mayulu S. ⚽, Zaire-Emery W. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
49', 0 - 2, Ramos G. ⚽, Mbaye I. (A),
59', 0 - 3, Ramos G. (Pen),
60', Doue D. ↓, Kamara N. ↑,
64', 1 - 3, Coulibaly T. ⚽, Ferri J. (A),
65', 1 - 4, Ramos G. ⚽, Tenas A. (A),
67', Tchato E. ↓, Ndollo Bille W. ↑,
68', Ferri J. ↓, Ndiaye J. ↑,
68', Barcola B. ↓, Zague Y. ↑,
84', Nzingoula R. ↓, Dzodic S. ↑,
84', Chennahi T. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,
85', Chotard J. ↓, Savanier T. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Montpellier is Relegated to Ligue 2

PSG is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 0.

Montpellier has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

PSG has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

PSG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, PSG is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Montpellier: Gueguin A. (Ribs Injury) Issoufou Y. (Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Maamma O. (International duty) Maksimovic N. (Thigh Injury) Pays N. (Foot Injury) Sagnan M. (Thigh Injury) Sylla I. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in PSG: Donnarumma G. (Rest) Hakimi A. (Rest) Kimpembe P. (Leg Injury) Marquinhos (Rest) Mendes N. (Rest) Pacho W. (Rest) Ruiz F. (Rest) Vitinha (Rest)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 16:61. (average 0.8:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Montpellier won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 13:25. (average 1.3:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
04.05.25	Brest - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Montpellier - Reims	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Olympique Marseille - Montpellier	5:1 ✺
13.04.25	Angers - Montpellier	2:0 ✺
09.04.25	Montpellier - Saint-Étienne	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLLL
- Paris Saint-Germain
UEFA Champions League
07.05.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
03.05.25	Strasbourg - Paris Saint-Germain	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.04.25	Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
25.04.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Nice	1:3 ✺
22.04.25	Nantes - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
23.08.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Montpellier	6:0
17.03.24	Montpellier - Paris Saint-Germain	2:6
03.11.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Montpellier	3:0
01.02.23	Montpellier - Paris Saint-Germain	1:3
13.08.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Montpellier	5:2
14.05.22	Montpellier - Paris Saint-Germain	0:4
25.09.21	Paris Saint-Germain - Montpellier	2:0

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