Match Info

CHINA: Super League - Round 18

Date: 7 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Rugao Olympic Sports Center (Rugao)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu, QQ Sports


	Nantong Zhiyun		Chengdu Rongcheng

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.5	1.42
	6.75	4.4	1.4
	7	4.5	1.42	Watch
	7.41	4.55	1.45
	6.96	4.36	1.45	Watch
	6.5	4.6	1.36
	7.15	4.8	1.43	Watch
	6.6	4.7	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.86 ↑ (5.5)	4.55 ↑ (4.18)	1.42 ↓ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nantong Zhiyun
13.6%

Draw
20.5%

Chengdu Rongcheng
65.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.9%

22.3%

60.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.9%

22.3%

60.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nantong Zhiyun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Chengdu Rongcheng has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chengdu Rongcheng's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nantong Zhiyun than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chengdu Rongcheng than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chengdu Rongcheng, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	0%	81.8%

Nantong Zhiyun - Chengdu Rongcheng Predictions

Users Predictions: Chengdu Rongcheng will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Xue Qinghao (G) 18. Jiang Zilei 15. Liu Wei 20. Anthony I. 34. Luo Xin 16. Puclin D. 25. Cao Kang 30. Rosa F. 38. Lu Yongtao 10. Kallon I. 29. Zheng Haoqian	16. Jian Tao (G) 4. Letschert T. 22. Li Y. 28. Yang Shuai 2. Hu H. 39. Gan Chao 8. Chow T. (C) 11. Gurfinkel Y. 10. Romulo 31. Palacios M. 21. Felipe Silva
Substitutes
37. Jia B. 17. Ji Shengpan 24. Liang Shaowen 31. Liao Lei 1. Li Huayang (G) 13. Song Haoyu 3. Wang Jie 2. Wei Lai 33. Xu Junmin 6. Yang Ming-Yang 26. Ye Daochi 11. Zimin Nuali	19. Dong Y. 9. Elkeson 29. Iminqari M. 25. Muzepper Murahmetjan 14. Ran Weifeng (G) 24. Tang Chuang 20. Tang Miao 17. Wu Lei 15. Yan Dinghao 27. Yang Fan 23. Yang Yiming
Coaches
Patricio D.	Seo Jung-Won

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Gan Chao 🟨,
28', Luo Xin 🟨,
45+4', Puclin D. 🟨,
45+4', Letschert T. ↓, Yang Yiming ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Jiang Zilei ↓, Song Haoyu ↑,
62', 0 - 1, Chow T. ⚽, Romulo (A),
63', Gan Chao ↓, Muzepper Murahmetjan ↑,
67', Lu Yongtao ↓, Xu Junmin ↑,
67', Luo Xin ↓, Liang Shaowen ↑,
75', Li Y. 🟨,
78', Palacios M. ↓, Tang Miao ↑,
78', Felipe Silva ↓, Tang Chuang ↑,
80', Rosa F. ↓, Jia B. ↑,
80', Cao Kang ↓, Yang Ming-Yang ↑,
90+5', Romulo ↓, Iminqari M. ↑,
90+6', Liang Shaowen 🟨,
90+7', Jian Tao 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nantong Zhiyun won 0.

Recent matches Nantong Zhiyun is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Chengdu Rongcheng in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Nantong Zhiyun could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Chengdu Rongcheng is indisputable favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Nantong Zhiyun won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 3-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Nantong Zhiyun won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nantong Zhiyun
Chinese Super League
29.06.24	Wuhan Three Towns - Nantong Zhiyun	1:2 ✺
25.06.24	Nantong Zhiyun - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	1:1 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
19.06.24	Ganzhou Ruishi - Nantong Zhiyun	1:3 ✺
Chinese Super League
14.06.24	Nantong Zhiyun - Shenzhen Peng City	0:1 ✺
26.05.24	Beijing Guoan - Nantong Zhiyun	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTWLL
- Chengdu Rongcheng
Chinese Super League
30.06.24	Chengdu Rongcheng - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	4:0 ✺
26.06.24	Qingdao Hainiu - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:5 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
21.06.24	Shanghai Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:2 penalties ✺
Chinese Super League
16.06.24	Shanghai Shenhua - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:1 ✺
26.05.24	Chengdu Rongcheng - Qingdao West Coast	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
30.03.24	Chengdu Rongcheng - Nantong Zhiyun	1:0
17.09.23	Nantong Zhiyun - Chengdu Rongcheng	0:2
27.05.23	Chengdu Rongcheng - Nantong Zhiyun	1:0
Chinese Jia League
09.06.21	Chengdu Rongcheng - Nantong Zhiyun	1:0
16.05.21	Nantong Zhiyun - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:2
Chinese Yi League
24.09.17	Nantong Zhiyun - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:1
24.06.17	Chengdu Rongcheng - Nantong Zhiyun	0:1

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