Match Info

Serie A - Round 6

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: La Penna F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, New World Sport 2
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Football


	Napoli		Genoa

	1	X	2
	1.45	4	9	Watch
	1.49	4	7.5
	1.47	4.15	7.9	Watch
	1.47	4.3	9.21
	1.46	3.78	8.90	Watch
	1.46	4.08	9.66
	1.49	4.05	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.45)	4.05 ↓ (4.28)	8.52 ↑ (7.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
65.1%

Draw
23.6%

Genoa
11.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.6%

22.3%

12.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.1%

21.8%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Genoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.4%	4.9%	9.8%

Napoli - Genoa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Napoli (2.51) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Napoli (2.06) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Napoli (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Napoli will win (70 of 82 users predict this - 85.37%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.72% – 93.02%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Napoli will win (33 of 36 users predict this - 91.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 41 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 37 - 90.2%). Genoa (votes: 3 - 7.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 31. Beukema S. 5. Juan Jesus 17. Olivera M. 68. Lobotka S. 21. Politano M. 99. Anguissa F. 8. McTominay S. 7. David Neres 19. Hojlund R.	1. Leali N. (G) 15. Norton-Cuffy B. 27. Marcandalli A. 22. Vasquez J. (C) 20. Sabelli S. 73. Masini P. 32. Frendrup M. 77. Ellertsson M. E. 17. Malinovskyi R. 9. Vitinha 21. Ekhator J.
Substitutes
69. Ambrosino G. 11. De Bruyne K. 20. Elmas E. 25. Ferrante M. (G) 6. Gilmour B. 3. Gutierrez M. 70. Lang N. 27. Lucca L. 35. Marianucci L. 30. Mazzocchi P. 1. Meret A. (G) 37. Spinazzola L. 26. Vergara A.	23. Carboni V. 29. Colombo L. 30. Cuenca Martinez H. F. 18. Ekuban C. 40. Fini S. 11. Gronbaek A. 3. Martin A. 14. Onana J. 34. Otoa S. 31. Siegrist B. (G) 39. Sommariva D. (G) 2. Thorsby M. 76. Venturino L.
Coaches
Conte A.	Vieira P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', Marcandalli A. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Ekhator J. ⚽, Norton-Cuffy B. (A),
38', Malinovskyi R. 🟨,
44', Lobotka S. ↓, Gilmour B. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Marcandalli A. ↓, Otoa S. ↑,
50', Olivera M. ↓, Spinazzola L. ↑,
50', Politano M. ↓, De Bruyne K. ↑,
55', David Neres 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Anguissa F. ⚽,
61', Ekhator J. ↓, Ekuban C. ↑,
61', Malinovskyi R. ↓, Thorsby M. ↑,
63', Otoa S. 🟨,
75', 2 - 1, Hojlund R. ⚽,
76', Sabelli S. ↓, Carboni V. ↑,
76', Vitinha ↓, Colombo L. ↑,
82', Hojlund R. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
82', David Neres ↓, Gutierrez M. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 2.

Napoli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Genoa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Genoa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Napoli is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Napoli: Buongiorno A. (Thigh Injury) Contini N. (Hand Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Rrahmani A. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Genoa: Cornet M. (Muscle Injury) Junior Messias (Inactive)

There are questionable in Genoa: Onana J. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 12 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 37:17. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Napoli won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:6. (average 2.1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Napoli - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Milan - Napoli	2:1 ✺
22.09.25	Napoli - Pisa	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Manchester City - Napoli	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWLW
- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie A
29.09.25	Genoa - Lazio	0:3 ✺
Coppa Italia
25.09.25	Genoa - Empoli	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.09.25	Bologna - Genoa	2:1 ✺
15.09.25	Como - Genoa	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Genoa - Juventus	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
11.05.25	Napoli - Genoa	2:2
21.12.24	Genoa - Napoli	1:2
17.02.24	Napoli - Genoa	1:1
16.09.23	Genoa - Napoli	2:2
15.05.22	Napoli - Genoa	3:0
29.08.21	Genoa - Napoli	1:2
06.02.21	Genoa - Napoli	2:1

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