Match Info

Serie A - Round 5

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Sport TV
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Cambodia	MyTV
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM, fubo Sports Network 4 DRM, fubo Sports Network 6 DRM, fubo Sports Network 9 DRM, fubo Sports Network, TLN, VIVA
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	DAZN, TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	DAZN, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
India	ZEE5
Indonesia	Vidio
Iraq	Almanasa
Israel	5 SPORT Israel, Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV, Thmanyah
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	DAZN, TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, NBC, Paramount+, Peacock, Telemundo
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN


	Roma		Inter Milan

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.40	2.55	Watch
	2.65	3.40	2.60
	2.65	3.40	2.48	Watch
	2.78	3.50	2.72
	2.63	3.55	2.71	Watch
	2.70	3.35	2.60
	2.83	3.45	2.51
	2.75	3.55	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.55)	3.45 ↓ (3.46)	2.59 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
35.3%

Draw
27.7%

Inter Milan
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

27.5%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

27.6%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Inter Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roma than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39.3%	42.9%	17.9%

Roma - Inter Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Roma will win (votes: 11 - 40.7%). Inter will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 40.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Roma: 22.2% – 59.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Inter (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Inter (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Roma (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.41) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

BTTS - yes (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.56) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Inter (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Inter (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.50) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.57) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Roma (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Inter (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 26. Balerdi L. 22. Hermoso M. 43. Wesley Franca 4. Cristante B. (C) 17. Kone M. 20. Molina N. 21. Dybala P. 18. Soule M. 14. Malen D.	1. Martinez J. (G) 31. Bisseck Y. 25. Akanji M. 95. Bastoni A. 17. Diouf A. 23. Barella N. 7. Zielinski P. 21. Jones C. 32. Dimarco F. 9. Thuram M. 10. Martinez L. (C)
Substitutes
9. Castro S. 70. De Marzi G. (G) 15. De Roon M. 87. Ghilardi D. 95. Gollini P. (G) 3. Koulierakis K. 77. Lulli E. 86. Mora R. 5. Ndicka E. 7. Pellegrini Lo. 61. Pisilli N. 2. Rensch D.	14. Bonny A. 46. Bovio L. 30. Carlos Augusto 12. Di Gennaro R. (G) 94. Esposito F. 11. Luis Henrique 22. Mkhitaryan H. 48. Mosconi M. 28. Pavard B. 49. Provedel I. (G) 5. Stankovic A. 8. Sucic P.
Coaches
Gasperini G.	Chivu C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Kone M. ⚽, Molina N. (A),
11', Barella N. 🟨,
37', 2 - 0, Kone M. ⚽, Mancini G. (A),
45+4', Akanji M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', 2 - 1, Martinez L. ⚽, Thuram M. (A),
54', Jones C. ↓, Sucic P. ↑,
54', Dimarco F. ↓, Carlos Augusto ↑,
57', Bastoni A. 🟨,
60', Mancini G. ↓, Ndicka E. ↑,
60', Kone M. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
60', Molina N. ↓, Rensch D. ↑,
63', Bastoni A. ↓, Luis Henrique ↑,
66', Balerdi L. ↓, Ghilardi D. ↑,
73', Ndicka E. 🟨,
79', 2 - 2, Martinez L. ⚽, Bisseck Y. (A),
81', Hermoso M. ↓, Koulierakis K. ↑,
82', Koulierakis K. 🟨,
89', Ghilardi D. 🟨,
90', Thuram M. ↓, Bonny A. ↑,
90', Martinez L. ↓, Esposito F. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma won 1.

Roma is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Inter is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Roma: Bah M. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Inter: Calhanoglu H. (Muscle Injury) Stones J. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Inter: Spence D. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Roma has recorded 3 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:38 (averaging 1.1:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Roma against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with 9:20 goals (averaging 1:2.2 per game).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Inter: 45.02% AS Roma: 12.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14:3	11	13
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	15:8	7	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
14.09.26	Torino - Roma	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.09.26	Fenerbahçe - Roma	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
05.09.26	Roma - Atalanta	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Lecce - Roma	0:4 ✺
24.08.26	Roma - Fiorentina	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTWWW
- Inter Milan
Italian Serie A
14.09.26	Inter Milan - Udinese	5:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Real Madrid - Inter Milan	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
05.09.26	Inter Milan - Napoli	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Cagliari - Inter Milan	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Inter Milan - Monza	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
05.04.26	Inter Milan - Roma	5:2
18.10.25	Roma - Inter Milan	0:1
27.04.25	Inter Milan - Roma	0:1
20.10.24	Roma - Inter Milan	0:1
10.02.24	Roma - Inter Milan	2:4
29.10.23	Inter Milan - Roma	1:0
06.05.23	Roma - Inter Milan	0:2

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