Match Info

SPAIN: SEGUNDA RFEF - GROUP 5 - ROUND 20

Date: 28 January 2024, Sunday


	Navalcarnero		Montijo

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.2	4.75
	1.68	3.2	4.75
	1.72	3.3	5
	1.68	3.1	4.53
	1.76	3.18	5.14
	2	2.88	3.7
	1.75	3.18	5.24
	1.73	3.25	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (2.07)	3.16 ↑ (2.9)	4.73 ↑ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Navalcarnero
51.9%

Draw
28.8%

Montijo
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

31%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

31.5%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Navalcarnero has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Navalcarnero's performance.

Montijo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Montijo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Navalcarnero than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Navalcarnero that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montijo than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montijo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Navalcarnero - Montijo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Navalcarnero is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Montijo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Navalcarnero could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Navalcarnero is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Navalcarnero won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Navalcarnero won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CDA Navalcarnero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
21.01.24	Gimnástica Segoviana - Navalcarnero	0:0 ✺
14.01.24	Navalcarnero - Cacereño	0:2 ✺
07.01.24	Navalcarnero - Talavera de la Reina	0:0 ✺
17.12.23	Ursaria - Navalcarnero	1:0 ✺
10.12.23	Navalcarnero - UD San Fernando	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLTLL
- UD Montijo
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
21.01.24	Montijo - Numancia	1:0 ✺
13.01.24	Illescas - Montijo	1:2 ✺
07.01.24	Atlético Paso - Montijo	2:1 ✺
17.12.23	Montijo - Llerenense	0:1 ✺
10.12.23	Badajoz - Montijo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.9 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
17.09.23	Montijo - Navalcarnero	0:1
09.04.23	Navalcarnero - Montijo	5:0
27.11.22	Montijo - Navalcarnero	2:0

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