Match Info

FNL - Round 11

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Arsenal (Tula)

Referee: Sidorin A. (Rus)


	Arsenal Tula		Ufa

	1	X	2
	1.84	3.27	5.21
	1.86	3.36	4.73
	1.78	3.23	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.86)	3.29 ↓ (3.46)	4.85 ↑ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Tula
51.7%

Draw
28.8%

Ufa
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

27.6%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

28%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Tula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Ufa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ufa than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Arsenal Tula - Ufa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Tsulaya M. (G) 77. Berdnikov A. 4. Penchikov D. 15. Putsko A. 45. Karmaev N. 22. Tsaraev A. 21. Razdorskikh N. 14. Brnovic M. 7. Reyes E. 78. Lipovoy D. 9. Kalmykov A. (C)	40. Chernov A. (G) 17. Ozmanov D. 79. Troyanov K. 50. Khomukha I. 55. Shlyakov E. 8. Isaev S. 22. Yusupov Z. (C) 23. Akhatov D. 88. Ageyan M. 10. Gystarov R. 70. Ortiz D.
Substitutes
17. Ahlinvi M. 59. Avanesyan T. 24. Azyavin I. 19. Bogdanets K. 31. Bolshakov K. 11. Djuranovic U. 44. Isaenko O. 42. Melikhov A. (G) 27. Mirzov R. 46. Moskalenchik I. 5. Sergeev D. 25. Troshechkin A.	96. Baranovsky A. 31. Belenov A. (G) 77. Chimezie W. 9. Karpuk I. 69. Khanenko I. 21. Matskharashvili N. 19. Mayorov E. 11. Minatulaev O. 7. Perchenok A. 45. Tenyaev A.
Coaches
Gunko D.	Tetradze O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', Kalmykov A. (Pen),
34', Berdnikov A. 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Berdnikov A. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Tsaraev A. ↓, Troshechkin A. ↑,
46', Berdnikov A. ↓, Isaenko O. ↑,
57', Lipovoy D. ↓, Mirzov R. ↑,
58', Gystarov R. 🟨,
60', Akhatov D. 🟨,
67', Ozmanov D. ↓, Perchenok A. ↑,
70', Brnovic M. ↓, Azyavin I. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Reyes E. ⚽,
73', 1 - 2, Yusupov Z. ⚽,
79', Akhatov D. ↓, Chimezie W. ↑,
79', Gystarov R. ↓, Baranovsky A. ↑,
82', Razdorskikh N. ↓, Ahlinvi M. ↑,
87', Ortiz D. ↓, Karpuk I. ↑,
90+2', Baranovsky A. 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 2, Penchikov D. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 3.

Arsenal has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ufa's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Arsenal is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:20. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
13.09.25	Arsenal Tula - Spartak Kostroma	1:2 ✺
08.09.25	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	1:0 ✺
03.09.25	Arsenal Tula - SKA Khabarovsk	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Volga Ulyanovsk - Arsenal Tula	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Arsenal Tula	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWLW
- FC Ufa
Russian FNL
15.09.25	Ufa - Ural	2:3 ✺
07.09.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Ufa	3:2 ✺
03.09.25	Torpedo Moscow - Ufa	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Ufa - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	4:0 ✺
23.08.25	KAMAZ - Ufa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
18.05.25	Ufa - Arsenal Tula	1:2
29.09.24	Arsenal Tula - Ufa	0:0
26.03.23	Arsenal Tula - Ufa	2:1
02.09.22	Ufa - Arsenal Tula	0:2
Russian Premier League
14.05.22	Ufa - Arsenal Tula	2:1
06.11.21	Arsenal Tula - Ufa	0:0
16.05.21	Ufa - Arsenal Tula	2:1

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