Match Info

MLS

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	New England Revolution		San Jose Earthquakes

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.5	5	Watch
	1.82	4	3.7
	1.57	4.75	5	Watch
	1.57	4.62	5.36
	1.56	4.61	5.16	Watch
	1.85	3.9	3.75
	1.61	4.66	5.18	Watch
	1.57	4.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (2.3)	4.47 ↑ (3.5)	4.77 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New England Revolution
58.5%

Draw
21.4%

San Jose Earthquakes
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

26.5%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

24.9%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New England Revolution has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in New England Revolution's performance.

San Jose Earthquakes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Jose Earthquakes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New England Revolution than the current prediction. (-15.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with New England Revolution that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Jose Earthquakes than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Jose Earthquakes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.3%	0%	8.7%

New England Revolution - San Jose Earthquakes Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. New England will win (votes: 19 - 90.5%). San Jose will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for New England: 78% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - New England (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): New England Revolution will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. New England (votes: 11 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ivacic A. (G) 4. Beason T. 3. Ceballos B. 2. Fofana M. 12. Feingold I. 80. Yusuf A. 10. Gil C. 8. Polster M. 25. Miller P. 17. Ganago I. 9. Campana L.	42. Daniel (G) 25. Floriani M. 18. Roberts R. 5. Munie D. 24. Lima N. 20. Fernandez N. 14. Kaye M. 2. Ricketts J. 3. Marie P. 19. Judd P. 7. Pellegrino A.
Substitutes
24. Bono A. (G) 15. Bye B. 7. Chancalay T. 11. Diaz L. 88. Farrell A. 5. Hughes K. 16. Omsberg W. 37. Urruti M. 14. Yueill J.	11. Bouda O. 36. Edwards E. (G) 6. Harkes I. 22. Jones D. 28. Kikanovic B. 34. Leroux B. 23. Lopez H. 17. Martinez J. 12. Romney D.
Coaches
Porter C.	Arena B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Ceballos B. 🟨,
32', Campana L. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
35', Floriani M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Daniel ↓, Edwards E. ↑,
59', Pellegrino A. ↓, Bouda O. ↑,
59', Fernandez N. ↓, Leroux B. ↑,
59', Ricketts J. ↓, Jones D. ↑,
65', Beason T. 🟨,
76', Feingold I. ↓, Bye B. ↑,
76', Ganago I. ↓, Urruti M. ↑,
78', Leroux B. 🟨,
82', Lima N. 🟨,
84', Beason T. ↓, Chancalay T. ↑,
86', Marie P. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, New England won 2.

New England has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

San Jose is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

San Jose may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, New England has had a series of away games.

In this match, New England is a strong favorite.

There will not play in New England: Fry M. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in San Jose: Buck N. (Lower-Body Injury) Tsakiris N. (Lower-Body Injury) Wilson Valdez B. R. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in New England: Chancalay T. (Groin Injury) Langoni L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, New England won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, New England won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 1.8:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New England Revolution
MLS
10.05.25	Orlando City - New England Revolution	3:3 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.25	Rhode Island - New England Revolution	1:2 ✺
MLS
03.05.25	Toronto FC - New England Revolution	0:2 ✺
26.04.25	Charlotte - New England Revolution	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	New England Revolution - New York City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.2 TWWWW
- San Jose Earthquakes
MLS
14.05.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Inter Miami	3:3 ✺
10.05.25	Colorado Rapids - San Jose Earthquakes	0:2 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Sacramento Republic	2:1 ✺
MLS
03.05.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Portland Timbers	4:1 ✺
26.04.25	Columbus Crew - San Jose Earthquakes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
11.05.19	New England Revolution - San Jose Earthquakes	3:1
13.06.18	San Jose Earthquakes - New England Revolution	2:2
19.04.17	New England Revolution - San Jose Earthquakes	0:0
24.08.16	San Jose Earthquakes - New England Revolution	0:0
28.03.15	New England Revolution - San Jose Earthquakes	2:1
29.03.14	San Jose Earthquakes - New England Revolution	1:2
06.07.13	New England Revolution - San Jose Earthquakes	2:0

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