What is the expert prediction for Newcastle United vs Manchester City?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Newcastle United vs Manchester City. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Newcastle United vs Manchester City Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, March 07, 2026)

Match Info

FA Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Sportsnet+
China	Migu
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay, Viaplay Sport News
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia, Discovery+
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV4
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	Hub Premier 4
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League, SuperSport Variety 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	Tabii Spor 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	BBC Radio 5 Live, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Newcastle United		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.7	2.4
	3.4	3.8	1.98
	2.72	3.55	2.48
	2.77	3.71	2.48
	3.04	3.00	2.60	Watch
	2.63	3.4	2.4
	2.73	3.73	2.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↓ (3.32)	3.56 ↓ (3.75)	2.41 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
33.5%

Draw
26.9%

Manchester City
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

25.1%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

24.1%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle United's performance.

Manchester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Manchester City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newcastle United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Manchester City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.1%	9.1%	78.8%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 4 - 12.1%). Man City will win (votes: 26 - 78.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man City: 64.9% – 92.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 2 - 20%). Man City (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Newcastle (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

TQ, OT - Newcastle (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Man City (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Man City (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ramsdale A. (G) 2. Trippier K. (C) 4. Botman S. 12. Thiaw M. 3. Hall L. 8. Tonali S. 28. Willock J. 20. Elanga A. 27. Woltemade N. 11. Barnes H. 18. Osula W.	1. Trafford J. (G) 27. Nunes M. 5. Stones J. (C) 45. Khusanov A. 6. Ake N. 14. Nico 4. Reijnders T. 33. O'Reilly N. 26. Savinho 7. Marmoush O. 11. Doku J.
Substitutes
33. Burn D. 10. Gordon A. 7. Joelinton 21. Livramento V. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 62. Neave S. 1. Pope N. (G) 9. Wissa Y.	21. Ait-Nouri R. 10. Cherki R. 3. Dias R. 25. Donnarumma G. (G) 47. Foden P. 15. Guehi M. 16. Rodri 42. Semenyo A. 20. Silva B.
Coaches
Howe E.	Guardiola P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', 1 - 0, Barnes H. ⚽, Tonali S. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Savinho ⚽, Doku J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', 1 - 2, Marmoush O. ⚽, Nunes M. (A),
54', Guardiola P. 🟨,
62', Elanga A. ↓, Joelinton ↑,
63', Osula W. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
63', Trippier K. ↓, Burn D. ↑,
65', 1 - 3, Marmoush O. ⚽, Nunes M. (A),
72', Woltemade N. ↓, Gordon A. ↑,
73', Marmoush O. ↓, Semenyo A. ↑,
78', Joelinton 🟨,
79', Doku J. ↓, Foden P. ↑,
79', Savinho ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
80', Hall L. ↓, Livramento V. ↑,
90', Wissa Y. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 1.

Newcastle has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Man City is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Man City has had a series of home games.

Man City is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Muscle Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Miley L. (Knee Injury) Ramsey J. (Red Card) Schar F. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Man City: Alleyne M. (Knock) Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg) Kovacic M. (Heel Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Livramento V. (Hamstring Injury) Tonali S. (Injury) Woltemade N. (Illness)

There are questionable in Man City: O'Reilly N. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 18:49. (average 0.9:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 1.5:2.1).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
04.03.26	Newcastle United - Manchester United	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Newcastle United - Everton	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Newcastle United - Qarabağ Agdam	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
21.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Newcastle United	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWLW
- Manchester City
English Premier League
04.03.26	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Leeds United - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Manchester City - Salford City	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Manchester City - Fulham	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
21.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:1
English League Cup
04.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	3:1
13.01.26	Newcastle United - Manchester City	0:2
English Premier League
22.11.25	Newcastle United - Manchester City	2:1
15.02.25	Manchester City - Newcastle United	4:0
28.09.24	Newcastle United - Manchester City	1:1
English FA Cup
16.03.24	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:0

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Newcastle United - Manchester City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide