Match Info

FA Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Newcastle United		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.7	2.4
	3.4	3.8	1.98
	2.72	3.55	2.48
	2.77	3.71	2.48
	3.04	3.00	2.60	Watch
	2.63	3.4	2.4
	2.73	3.73	2.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↓ (3.32)	3.56 ↓ (3.75)	2.41 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
33.5%

Draw
26.9%

Manchester City
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

25.1%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

24.1%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle United's performance.

Manchester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Manchester City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newcastle United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Manchester City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.1%	9.1%	78.8%

Newcastle United - Manchester City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 2 - 20%). Man City (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Newcastle (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Newcastle (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Man City (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (26 of 33 users predict this - 78.79%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.84% – 92.74%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Man City (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ramsdale A. (G) 2. Trippier K. (C) 4. Botman S. 12. Thiaw M. 3. Hall L. 8. Tonali S. 28. Willock J. 20. Elanga A. 27. Woltemade N. 11. Barnes H. 18. Osula W.	1. Trafford J. (G) 27. Nunes M. 5. Stones J. (C) 45. Khusanov A. 6. Ake N. 14. Nico 4. Reijnders T. 33. O'Reilly N. 26. Savinho 7. Marmoush O. 11. Doku J.
Substitutes
33. Burn D. 10. Gordon A. 7. Joelinton 21. Livramento V. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 62. Neave S. 1. Pope N. (G) 9. Wissa Y.	21. Ait-Nouri R. 10. Cherki R. 3. Dias R. 25. Donnarumma G. (G) 47. Foden P. 15. Guehi M. 16. Rodri 42. Semenyo A. 20. Silva B.
Coaches
Howe E.	Guardiola P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', 1 - 0, Barnes H. ⚽, Tonali S. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Savinho ⚽, Doku J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', 1 - 2, Marmoush O. ⚽, Nunes M. (A),
54', Guardiola P. 🟨,
62', Elanga A. ↓, Joelinton ↑,
63', Osula W. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
63', Trippier K. ↓, Burn D. ↑,
65', 1 - 3, Marmoush O. ⚽, Nunes M. (A),
72', Woltemade N. ↓, Gordon A. ↑,
73', Marmoush O. ↓, Semenyo A. ↑,
78', Joelinton 🟨,
79', Doku J. ↓, Foden P. ↑,
79', Savinho ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
80', Hall L. ↓, Livramento V. ↑,
90', Wissa Y. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 1.

Newcastle has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Man City is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Man City has had a series of home games.

Man City is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Muscle Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Miley L. (Knee Injury) Ramsey J. (Red Card) Schar F. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Man City: Alleyne M. (Knock) Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg) Kovacic M. (Heel Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Livramento V. (Hamstring Injury) Tonali S. (Injury) Woltemade N. (Illness)

There are questionable in Man City: O'Reilly N. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 18:49. (average 0.9:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 1.5:2.1).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Manchester City: 11.16%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
04.03.26	Newcastle United - Manchester United	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Newcastle United - Everton	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Newcastle United - Qarabağ Agdam	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
21.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Newcastle United	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWLW
- Manchester City
English Premier League
04.03.26	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Leeds United - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Manchester City - Salford City	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Manchester City - Fulham	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
21.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:1
English League Cup
04.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	3:1
13.01.26	Newcastle United - Manchester City	0:2
English Premier League
22.11.25	Newcastle United - Manchester City	2:1
15.02.25	Manchester City - Newcastle United	4:0
28.09.24	Newcastle United - Manchester City	1:1
English FA Cup
16.03.24	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:0

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