Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Harrington T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 5, One Africa, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, SuperSport Maximo 360, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 4
Angola	TPA 1, TPA
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League
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Bangladesh	Toffee Live
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Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Cape-verde	RTC
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Colombia	ESPN 2
Cote-d-ivoire	NCI
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 4, CANAL+ Sport 8, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay, Viaplay Sport News
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Poland	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
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Romania	Voyo
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Senegal	RTS 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
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Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-africa	SABC 3, SABC Plus
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 4 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sky Sport Premier League
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, Digiturk
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	FuboTV, NBCSN, NBC Universo, NBC, Telemundo
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Newcastle United		Hull City

	1	X	2
	1.60	4.50	5.00
	1.60	4.33	5.00
	1.58	4.30	5.30
	1.63	4.45	5.45
	1.62	4.28	5.58	Watch
	1.59	4.35	5.45
	1.61	4.52	5.03	Watch
	1.59	4.50	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.5)	4.4 ↓ (4.64)	5.25 ↓ (6.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
59.9%

Draw
21.8%

Hull City
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.7%

20.6%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.2%

19.8%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Hull City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newcastle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hull City than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.6%	13%	17.4%

Newcastle United - Hull City Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Hull will win (votes: 3 - 13.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 54.1% – 91.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.75 - Hull (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hull (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Hull (3.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.70) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

AH +1 - Hull (1.82) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.65) (votes: 86%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle United will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 4 - 50%). Hull (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Hornicek L. (G) 67. Miley L. 12. Thiaw M. (C) 4. Botman S. 3. Hall L. 14. Steur S. 28. Willock J. 23. Murphy J. 20. Fernandez-Pardo M. 11. Barnes H. 9. Wissa Y.	19. Tzolakis K. (G) 2. Coyle L. (C) 6. Ajayi S. 15. Egan J. 22. Herrington L. 3. Giles R. 10. Belloumi M. 25. Crooks M. 27. Slater R. 7. Thomas S. 9. McBurnie O.
Substitutes
8. Bamba A. 76. Miley M. 77. Mills M. 48. Pivas M. 1. Pope N. (G) 49. Salia V. 5. Schar F. 44. Thompson K. 17. Toure B.	50. Cho M. 11. Gelhardt J. 29. Gourna-Douath L. 14. Hjerto-Dahl J. 42. Iroegbunam T. 17. McNair P. 12. Phillips D. (G) 21. Stroud E. 47. Vaz R.
Coaches
Jaissle M.	Jakirovic S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Willock J. ⚽, Barnes H. (A),
7', 2 - 0, Hall L. ⚽, Barnes H. (A),
29', Crooks M. 🟨,
39', Belloumi M. 🟨,
45+2', Tzolakis K. 🟨,
45+2', Wissa Y. (Penalty Awarded),
45+3', Murphy J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Crooks M. ↓, Iroegbunam T. ↑,
49', Giles R. 🟨,
63', Thomas S. ↓, Cho M. ↑,
66', Steur S. ↓, Schar F. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Cho M. ⚽, Belloumi M. (A),
74', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Toure B. ↑,
78', Slater R. ↓, Gourna-Douath L. ↑,
78', Egan J. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
83', Belloumi M. ↓, Gelhardt J. ↑,
87', Willock J. ↓, Bamba A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 2.

Newcastle has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Hull have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Hull has had a run of games away from home.

Newcastle carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Newcastle: Burn D. (Ankle Injury) Dedic A. (Injury) Elanga A. (Knee Injury) Jaouen E. (Ankle Injury) Joelinton (Thigh Injury) Nico (Injury) Osula W. (Injury) Ramsey J. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Hull: Ansah I. (Back Injury) Butland J. (Arm Injury) Gyabi D. (Groin Injury) Hughes C. (Groin Injury) Matazo E. (Knee Injury) Mendy N. (Injury) Morita H. (Calf Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Hull: Targett M. (Ankle Injury).

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Newcastle has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:10 (averaging 2.3:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Newcastle against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 4:5 goals (averaging 2:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Hull	5	2	2	1	6:4	2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9:9	0	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
14.09.26	Leeds United - Newcastle United	4:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.09.26	Millwall - Newcastle United	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Newcastle United	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.26	Newcastle United - West Bromwich Albion	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWTWW
- Hull City
English Premier League
12.09.26	Chelsea - Hull City	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
08.09.26	Sunderland - Hull City	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Hull City - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Coventry City - Hull City	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Stoke City - Hull City	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.5 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
27.07.24	Hull City - Newcastle United	0:2
24.07.18	Hull City - Newcastle United	2:2
English League Cup
29.11.16	Hull City - Newcastle United	2:1 penalties
English Premier League
31.01.15	Hull City - Newcastle United	0:3
20.09.14	Newcastle United - Hull City	2:2
01.03.14	Hull City - Newcastle United	1:4
21.09.13	Newcastle United - Hull City	2:3

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