Match Info

EFL Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: The Den (London)

Referee: Pawson C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA French 1
Australia	beIN Sports 3
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Hungary	Match 4
Israel	Sport 4
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 1, Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Sky Go
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Millwall		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	8	5.25	1.27	Watch
	8.00	5.50	1.34
	9.7	4.8	1.33	Watch
	8.71	5.42	1.35
	8.14	5.16	1.36	Watch
	8.6	5.35	1.32
	8.39	5.51	1.33	Watch
	8.25	5.25	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.47 ↑ (4.71)	5.28 ↑ (3.99)	1.33 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millwall
11.1%

Draw
17.8%

Newcastle United
71.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.8%

23.4%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3%

22.8%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millwall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Millwall's form might have worsened.

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newcastle United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Millwall, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newcastle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	6.2%	87.5%

Millwall - Newcastle United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Newcastle (1.44) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Newcastle United will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Marschall F. (G) 2. Osei-Tutu J. 6. Taylor C. 5. Cooper J. (C) 12. Baggott E. 16. Kelly D. 14. Metcalfe J. 11. Esse R. 13. Dykes L. 10. Neghli C. 29. Lovelace Z.	21. Hornicek L. (G) 37. Dedic A. 5. Schar F. 4. Botman S. 3. Hall L. 6. Nico 41. Ramsey J. 23. Murphy J. 28. Willock J. 11. Barnes H. 9. Wissa Y. (C)
Substitutes
57. Anderson R. 7. Arconte T. 37. Beaumont G. 41. Evans G. (G) 35. Issoufou Y. 44. Massey A. 55. Parkes T. 3. Sturge Z. 51. Vieira S. T.	8. Bamba A. 19. Elanga A. 20. Fernandez-Pardo M. 2. Livramento V. 67. Miley L. 1. Pope N. (G) 14. Steur S. 12. Thiaw M. 17. Toure B.
Coaches
Neil A.	Jaissle M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dedic A. ↓, Livramento V. ↑,
62', Esse R. ↓, Issoufou Y. ↑,
62', Lovelace Z. ↓, Arconte T. ↑,
66', Wissa Y. ↓, Fernandez-Pardo M. ↑,
66', Murphy J. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
67', Metcalfe J. 🟨,
69', Ramsey J. 🟨,
81', 0 - 1, Willock J. ⚽, Hall L. (A),
83', Ramsey J. ↓, Miley L. ↑,
87', Dykes L. ↓, Anderson R. ↑,
87', Kelly D. ↓, Massey A. ↑,
88', Osei-Tutu J. ↓, Parkes T. ↑,
90+1', Massey A. 🟨,
90+1', Willock J. ↓, Steur S. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Millwall have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Newcastle is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Newcastle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Newcastle has had a series of home games.

In this match, Newcastle is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Millwall: Coburn J. (Muscle Injury) Crama T. (Inactive) Cundle L. (Inactive) De Norre C. (Injury) Doughty A. (Hamstring Injury) Ivanovic M. (Hamstring Injury) Jensen L. (Inactive) Metcalfe J. (Red Card) Servais M. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Burn D. (Ankle Injury) Joelinton (Injury) Osula W. (Injury)

There are questionable in Millwall: Leonard R. (Hamstring Injury) Lisbie K. (Inactive) Luongo M. (Knee Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Newcastle United - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.78%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millwall
English League Championship
05.09.26	Millwall - Bolton Wanderers	4:0 ✺
02.09.26	Millwall - Wrexham	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Southampton - Millwall	5:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Cambridge United - Millwall	0:1 ✺
English League Championship
22.08.26	Millwall - Norwich City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLWW
- Newcastle United
English Premier League
05.09.26	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Newcastle United	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.26	Newcastle United - West Bromwich Albion	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.26	Newcastle United - Liverpool	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.26	Newcastle United - Strasbourg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWWTT

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