Match Info

League Two - Round 23

Date: 29 December 2025, Monday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Referee: Byrne A. (Eng)


	Newport County		Crewe Alexandra

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.25	2.05
	3.25	3.35	2.12	Watch
	3.34	3.53	2.05	Watch
	3.25	3.25	2.15
	3.43	3.28	2.12	Watch
	3.25	3.4	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (3.2)	3.34 ↑ (3.25)	2.11 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
28%

Draw
27.8%

Crewe Alexandra
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

28.2%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

28.2%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Crewe Alexandra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Newport County - Crewe Alexandra Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Crewe (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Newport (4.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Crewe Alexandra will win (14 of 14 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Crewe Alexandra will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Newport (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Crewe (votes: 7 - 87.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Wright J. (G) 12. Thomas J. 15. Jenkins L. 4. Baker M. 5. Clarke J. (C) 3. Driscoll-Glennon A. 21. Spellman M. 8. Smith M. 44. Braybrooke S. 7. Kamwa B. 9. Baker-Richardson C.	13. Waller S. (G) 4. Mingi J. J. 18. Connolly J. 2. Billington L. (C) 3. Hutchinson R. 23. Powell J. 6. Sanders M. H. 26. O'Reilly T. 19. Lunt O. 15. Rankine D. 31. Moult L.
Substitutes
11. Antwi C. 6. Brennan C. 2. Evans C. 20. Lloyd B. 24. Opoku N. 18. Shephard L. 1. Tzanev N. (G)	20. Agius C. 9. Bogle O. 1. Booth T. (G) 22. Croker P. 30. Dancey S. 14. Finney C. 17. Holicek M.
Coaches
Fuchs Ch.	Bell L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Baker-Richardson C. ⚽,
40', Driscoll-Glennon A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Mingi J. J. 🟨,
53', Lunt O. ↓, Holicek M. ↑,
53', Rankine D. ↓, Agius C. ↑,
54', Powell J. ↓, Bogle O. ↑,
69', Mingi J. J. ↓, Finney C. ↑,
73', Moult L. 🟨,
74', Spellman M. ↓, Lloyd B. ↑,
75', Baker-Richardson C. ↓, Opoku N. ↑,
76', 2 - 0, Braybrooke S. ⚽,
85', Smith M. ↓, Brennan C. ↑,
85', Driscoll-Glennon A. ↓, Shephard L. ↑,
90+1', Connolly J. 🟨,
90+2', Kamwa B. ↓, Antwi C. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newport won 2.

Newport has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Crewe has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Crewe is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Newport: Patten K. (Broken Leg)

There will not play in Crewe: Tabiner J. (Knee Injury) Tezgel E. (Injury) Tracey S. (Broken Leg)

There are questionable in Newport: Garner G. (Inactive) Warner J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Crewe: Demetriou M. (Inactive) Golding J. (Inactive) Lankester J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Newport won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:19. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Newport won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Crewe Alexandra - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 43.26%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English League Two
26.12.25	Newport County - Barnet	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Colchester United - Newport County	4:1 ✺
13.12.25	Newport County - Fleetwood Town	0:2 ✺
10.12.25	Crewe Alexandra - Newport County	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
07.12.25	Boreham Wood - Newport County	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLLTL
- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
26.12.25	Walsall - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
19.12.25	Crewe Alexandra - Bristol Rovers	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Tranmere Rovers - Crewe Alexandra	1:4 ✺
10.12.25	Crewe Alexandra - Newport County	2:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
03.12.25	Crewe Alexandra - Stockport County	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
10.12.25	Crewe Alexandra - Newport County	2:2
08.02.25	Crewe Alexandra - Newport County	0:3
28.09.24	Newport County - Crewe Alexandra	2:1
29.12.23	Newport County - Crewe Alexandra	1:1
15.08.23	Crewe Alexandra - Newport County	4:2
08.05.23	Newport County - Crewe Alexandra	2:2
02.12.22	Crewe Alexandra - Newport County	1:2

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