Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Allianz Riviera (Nice)

Referee: Brisard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 4
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360


	Nice		Lyon

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.5	3.1	Watch
	2.22	3.45	3.15
	2.29	3.6	3.28
	1.54	4.22	5.57	Watch
	2.26	3.54	3.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.44)	3.66 ↑ (3.48)	3.68 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nice
46.6%

Draw
26.7%

Lyon
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

27.4%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

29.5%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nice's performance.

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lyon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nice than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.1%	18.4%	60.5%

Nice - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Nice will win (votes: 8 - 21.6%). Lyon will win (votes: 23 - 62.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 16.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lyon: 46.6% – 77.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Nice (1.44) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lyon will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Nice (votes: 3 - 30%). Lyon (votes: 7 - 70%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
80. Diouf Y. (G) 33. Mendy A. 4. Dante (C) 37. Peprah K. 92. Clauss J. 6. Boudaoui H. 24. Vanhoutte C. 26. Bard M. 7. Boga J. 25. Cho M. 10. Diop S.	1. Greif D. (G) 98. Maitland-Niles A. 22. Clinton Mata 21. Kluivert R. 16. Abner Vinicius 8. Tolisso C. (C) 23. Morton T. 7. Karabec A. 10. Sulc P. 11. Fofana M. 20. Satriano M.
Substitutes
99. Abdul Samed S. 28. Bah J. 31. Dupe M. (G) 47. Gouveia T. 21. Jansson I. 90. Kevin 20. Louchet T. 22. Ndombele T. 8. Sanson M.	39. de Carvalho M. 50. Diarra L. (G) 18. Ghezzal R. 32. Gomes A. 44. Merah K. 17. Moreira A. 19. Niakhate M. 3. Tagliafico N. 6. Tessmann T.
Coaches
Haise F.	Maciel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Bard M. ⚽, Diop S. (A),
26', Clinton Mata 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Sulc P. ⚽, Kluivert R. (A),
35', 2 - 1, Diop S. ⚽, Boga J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Maitland-Niles A. (Pen),
55', 3 - 1, Boudaoui H. ⚽, Clauss J. (A),
64', Vanhoutte C. 🟨,
66', Dante ↓, Bah J. ↑,
68', Karabec A. ↓, Ghezzal R. ↑,
68', Abner Vinicius ↓, Tagliafico N. ↑,
73', Cho M. ↓, Louchet T. ↑,
73', Boga J. ↓, Gouveia T. ↑,
73', Diop S. ↓, Sanson M. ↑,
77', Morton T. ↓, Tessmann T. ↑,
77', Fofana M. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
77', Clinton Mata ↓, Niakhate M. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 2, Sulc P. ⚽,
90+6', Niakhate M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nice won 1.

Nice is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lyon is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Nice: Abdelmonem M. (Knee Injury) Abdi A. (Red Card) Bombito M. (Leg Injury) Moffi T. (Calf Injury) Ndayishimiye Y. (Knee Injury) Ndombele T. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Lyon: Descamps R. (Wrist Injury) Mangala O. (Knee Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nice won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 25:36. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Nice won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OGC Nice
French Ligue 1
05.10.25	Monaco - Nice	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Fenerbahçe - Nice	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
28.09.25	Nice - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.09.25	Nice - Roma	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
20.09.25	Brest - Nice	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLTLL
- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
05.10.25	Lyon - Toulouse	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Lyon - Red Bull Salzburg	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
28.09.25	Lille - Lyon	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Utrecht - Lyon	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
19.09.25	Lyon - Angers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
09.03.25	Nice - Lyon	0:2
01.12.24	Lyon - Nice	4:1
16.02.24	Lyon - Nice	1:0
27.08.23	Nice - Lyon	0:0
03.06.23	Nice - Lyon	3:1
11.11.22	Lyon - Nice	1:1
12.02.22	Lyon - Nice	2:0

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