Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 7

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Parc Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon)

Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	Ligue 1 Pass
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Lyon		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	4	Watch
	1.9	3.6	3.8
	1.98	3.45	3.9
	1.99	3.49	4.26
	1.87	3.28	4.46	Watch
	1.99	3.76	4.05	Watch
	1.89	3.65	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.82)	3.53 ↓ (3.76)	4.05 ↓ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
49.3%

Draw
27.1%

Toulouse
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

25.3%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

24.8%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.1%	9.5%	2.4%

Lyon - Toulouse Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Lyon (3.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Lyon (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Toulouse (2.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lyon will win (37 of 42 users predict this - 88.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.31% – 97.89%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lyon will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Lyon (votes: 13 - 92.9%). Toulouse (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Greif D. (G) 98. Maitland-Niles A. 22. Clinton Mata 19. Niakhate M. 3. Tagliafico N. 23. Morton T. 6. Tessmann T. 7. Karabec A. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 11. Fofana M. 20. Satriano M.	1. Restes G. (G) 3. McKenzie M. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 19. Sidibe D. 23. Casseres C. 77. Sauer M. 12. Kamanzi W. 15. Donnum A. 9. Magri F. 10. Gboho Y.
Substitutes
41. Barisic T. 39. de Carvalho M. 50. Diarra L. (G) 18. Ghezzal R. 32. Gomes A. 21. Kluivert R. 44. Merah K. 17. Moreira A. 10. Sulc P.	31. Edjouma N. 20. Emersonn 17. Francis A. 16. Haug K. (G) 11. Hidalgo S. 35. Koumbassa S. 24. Methalie D. 7. Vignolo J. 45. Vossah A.
Coaches
Maciel J.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Fofana M. ⚽, Satriano M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Kamanzi W. ↓, Methalie D. ↑,
46', Sauer M. ↓, Francis A. ↑,
51', Francis A. 🟨,
59', Donnum A. 🟨,
71', Magri F. ↓, Emersonn ↑,
78', Karabec A. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
78', Casseres C. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
78', Sidibe D. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
80', McKenzie M. 🟨,
87', 1 - 1, Emersonn ⚽, Gboho Y. (A),
90+2', Tessmann T. ↓, Sulc P. ↑,
90+4', Moreira A. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 2, Emersonn ⚽, Vossah A. (A),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 4.

Lyon is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Toulouse is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Toulouse may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lyon is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lyon: Descamps R. (Wrist Injury) Mangala O. (Knee Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Injury) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lyon: Abner Vinicius (Groin Injury) Ghezzal R. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 15 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 48:17. (average 2.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lyon won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 28:3. (average 2.8:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Lyon
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Lyon - Red Bull Salzburg	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
28.09.25	Lille - Lyon	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Utrecht - Lyon	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
19.09.25	Lyon - Angers	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Rennes - Lyon	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWWL
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
27.09.25	Toulouse - Nantes	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Auxerre - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Lille - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain	3:6 ✺
24.08.25	Toulouse - Brest	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
18.01.25	Lyon - Toulouse	0:0
29.09.24	Toulouse - Lyon	1:2
15.03.24	Toulouse - Lyon	2:3
10.12.23	Lyon - Toulouse	3:0
14.04.23	Toulouse - Lyon	1:2
07.10.22	Lyon - Toulouse	1:1
26.01.20	Lyon - Toulouse	3:0

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