What is the expert prediction for Lyon vs Nice?

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Lyon vs Nice Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, February 15, 2026)

Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 22

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Parc Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon)

Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Caze TV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4, ART Sport 4
Malta	TVM Sport+
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 5 Norte
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV6
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4, Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab
World	Onefootball


	Lyon		Nice

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.75	4.2	Watch
	1.78	3.95	4.25	Watch
	1.97	3.7	4.26
	1.78	3.76	4.56	Watch
	1.83	3.6	3.9
	1.96	3.73	4.25	Watch
	1.87	3.6	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.59)	3.73 ↓ (4.14)	4.23 ↓ (5.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
51.6%

Draw
25.7%

Nice
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

22.8%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

22%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lyon's form might have worsened.

Nice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lyon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nice than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nice, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.1%	10.7%	1.2%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTTS - yes (votes: 10 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Lyon (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lyon will win (73 of 83 users predict this - 87.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.95% – 94.95%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lyon will win (28 of 29 users predict this - 96.55%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 30 high ROI users predict this event. Lyon (votes: 29 - 96.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.3%).

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Greif D. (G) 33. Hateboer H. 22. Mata C. 19. Niakhate M. 98. Maitland-Niles A. 23. Morton T. 6. Tessmann T. 16. Abner Vinicius 8. Tolisso C. (C) 99. Nartey N. 10. Sulc P.	31. Dupe M. (G) 92. Clauss J. 37. Peprah K. 4. Dante (C) 2. Abdi A. 8. Sanson M. 24. Vanhoutte C. 25. Cho M. 10. Diop S. 20. Louchet T. 11. Wahi E.
Substitutes
39. de Carvalho M. 40. Descamps R. (G) 18. Ghezzal R. 34. Hamdani A. 45. Himbert R. 85. Kamara N. 7. Karabec A. 44. Merah K. 77. Yaremchuk R.	28. Bah J. 23. Bernardeau G. 32. Boudache K. 6. Boudaoui H. 80. Diouf Y. (G) 21. Jansson I. 90. Kevin 33. Mendy A. 41. Pereira E.
Coaches
Fonseca P.	Puel C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Wahi E. ↓, Boudache K. ↑,
21', Sanson M. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Tolisso C. ⚽, Sulc P. (A),
45+4', Maitland-Niles A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Tessmann T. 🟨,
64', 2 - 0, Nartey N. ⚽,
66', Tolisso C. ↓, Merah K. ↑,
74', Dante ↓, Bah J. ↑,
74', Cho M. ↓, Kevin ↑,
75', Louchet T. ↓, Boudaoui H. ↑,
81', Sulc P. ↓, Yaremchuk R. ↑,
83', Sanson M. ↓, Jansson I. ↑,
87', Abner Vinicius 🟨,
90+1', Maitland-Niles A. ↓, Kamara N. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 3.

Lyon has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Nice has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Lyon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lyon is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lyon: Endrick (Red Card) Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Kluivert R. (Muscle Injury) Mangala O. (Injury) Moreira A. (Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury) Tagliafico N. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Nice: Abdelmonem M. (Knee Injury) Bombito M. (Leg Injury) Ndayishimiye Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nice: Kevin (Ankle Injury) Mendy A. (Inactive) Sanson M. (Injury)

We predict that Lyon will win today's game, with odds of 1.69.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 38:26. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lyon won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:12. (average 1.9:1.2).

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Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lyon: 0.26%

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Lyon	27	14	5	8	41:29	12	47
15	Nice	27	7	6	14	32:52	-20	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
07.02.26	Nantes - Lyon	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Lyon - Laval	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Lyon - Lille	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Lyon - PAOK	4:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
25.01.26	Metz - Lyon	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWW
- OGC Nice
French Ligue 1
08.02.26	Nice - Monaco	0:0 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Nice - Montpellier	3:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Nice - Brest	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - Nice	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
25.01.26	Nantes - Nice	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
18.10.25	Nice - Lyon	3:2
09.03.25	Nice - Lyon	0:2
01.12.24	Lyon - Nice	4:1
16.02.24	Lyon - Nice	1:0
27.08.23	Nice - Lyon	0:0
03.06.23	Nice - Lyon	3:1
11.11.22	Lyon - Nice	1:1

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