Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 11 July 2025, Friday

Location: WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, NC)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	North Carolina		Birmingham Legion

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	3.3	3.1
	1.95	3.4	3.5
	1.92	3.37	4.01
				Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.3
	1.91	3.48	3.68	Watch
	1.88	3.65	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.73)	3.42 ↓ (3.52)	3.52 ↓ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Carolina
47.1%

Draw
26.8%

Birmingham Legion
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

26.1%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

25.2%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Carolina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that North Carolina's form might have worsened.

Birmingham Legion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Birmingham Legion's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Carolina than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for North Carolina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Birmingham Legion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

North Carolina - Birmingham Legion Predictions

Users Predictions: North Carolina will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): North Carolina will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McGuire J. (G) 27. Washington B. 5. Craig P. (C) 66. Sundstrom F. 14. Rafa Mentzingen 17. Martin C. 15. Maldonado M. 11. Burner P. 8. Pedro Becker 19. Al Qaq A. 9. Anderson O.	57. Delgado F. (G) 2. Turnbull S. 43. Suarez S. 13. Rufe J. 20. Paterson AJ 33. Mensah M. 15. Pasher T. (C) 19. Martinez E. 17. Laszo E. 7. Trejo D. 9. Damus R.
Substitutes
7. Conway E. 16. Da Costa R. 20. Donovan C. 26. Luckhurst A. 24. Mulqueen T. (G) 13. Perez L. 10. Servania J. 44. Sommersall R.	27. Centeno E. 8. Hernandez-Foster K. 3. Kavita P. 6. McIllhatton S. 10. Preston T. 21. Tregarthen S. 1. Van Oekel M. (G)
Coaches
Bradford J.	Briggs M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', Turnbull S. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Pedro Becker ⚽, Rafa Mentzingen (A),
45', 1 - 1, Damus R. ⚽, Martinez E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', Martinez E. 🟨,
50', Rufe J. 🟨,
56', 1 - 2, Trejo D. ⚽, Pasher T. (A),
59', Martin C. 🟨,
63', 1 - 3, Trejo D. ⚽, Damus R. (A),
70', Martin C. ↓, Perez L. ↑,
70', Al Qaq A. ↓, Conway E. ↑,
79', Pedro Becker ↓, Da Costa R. ↑,
79', Anderson O. ↓, Luckhurst A. ↑,
81', Turnbull S. ↓, Centeno E. ↑,
81', Paterson AJ ↓, McIllhatton S. ↑,
85', Craig P. 🟨,
86', Trejo D. ↓, Tregarthen S. ↑,
87', Damus R. ↓, Preston T. ↑,
90+3', Conway E. 🟨,
90+7', Rafa Mentzingen ↓, Servania J. ↑,
90+8', Martinez E. ↓, Torres R. ↑,
90+9', 2 - 3, Conway E. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 10).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

North Carolina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, North Carolina has had a series of away games.

North Carolina could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, North Carolina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, North Carolina won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Carolina FC
USL Championship
06.07.25	Charleston Battery - North Carolina	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
29.06.25	Louisville City - North Carolina	1:0 ✺
USL Championship
20.06.25	North Carolina - Louisville City	2:1 ✺
14.06.25	Rhode Island - North Carolina	2:1 ✺
06.06.25	Hartford Athletic - North Carolina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLWLW
- Birmingham Legion
USL Championship
05.07.25	Rhode Island - Birmingham Legion	1:1 ✺
02.07.25	Birmingham Legion - Charleston Battery	0:0 ✺
USL Cup
28.06.25	Indy Eleven - Birmingham Legion	2:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
21.06.25	Birmingham Legion - Oakland Roots	0:1 ✺
18.06.25	Birmingham Legion - Sacramento Republic	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
06.10.24	Birmingham Legion - North Carolina	2:3
14.04.24	North Carolina - Birmingham Legion	1:1

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