Match Info

US Open Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, NC)


	North Carolina		Charlotte

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.5	2	Watch
	3.3	3.4	1.9	Watch
	3.5	3.5	1.97
	3.52	3.5	2.06
	3.52	3.44	2.04	Watch
	3.4	3.2	1.95
	3.48	3.45	2.07	Watch
	3.5	3.5	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↑ (2.75)	3.44 ↓ (3.7)	2 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Carolina
26.9%

Draw
26.9%

Charlotte
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

25%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

23.9%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Carolina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that North Carolina's form might have worsened.

Charlotte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Carolina than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for North Carolina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Charlotte than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

North Carolina - Charlotte Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. North Carolina (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Fitzgerald A. (G) 15. Maldonado M. 20. Donovan C. (C) 27. Washington B. 55. Hodge T. 10. Servania J. 11. Burner P. 16. Da Costa R. 17. Martin C. 13. Perez L. 9. Anderson O.	22. Bingham D. (G) 35. Scardina N. 6. Tuiloma B. (C) 4. Privett A. 2. Marshall-Rutty J. 28. Diani D. 19. Williamson E. 38. Tavares I. 17. Toklomati I. 25. Smalls T. 18. Calderon Vargas K. A.
Substitutes
19. Al Qaq A. 26. Luckhurst A. 4. Malou J. 24. Mulqueen T. (G) 14. Rafa Mentzingen 44. Sommersall R. 66. Sundstrom F.	11. Abada L. 33. Agyemang P. 13. Bronico B. 31. Marks G. (G) 39. Neeley J. 23. Petkovic N. 3. Ream T.
Coaches
Bradford J.	Smith D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Diani D. 🟨,
35', Toklomati I. 🟨,
36', Tuiloma B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Washington B. 🟨,
76', Da Costa R. ↓, Al Qaq A. ↑,
76', Burner P. ↓, Rafa Mentzingen ↑,
76', Martin C. ↓, Sommersall R. ↑,
78', Toklomati I. ↓, Agyemang P. ↑,
86', Tavares I. ↓, Bronico B. ↑,
86', Smalls T. ↓, Abada L. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 4)
97', 0 - 1, Abada L. ⚽, Scardina N. (A),
98', 1 - 1, Rafa Mentzingen ⚽,
102', Williamson E. ↓, Petkovic N. ↑,
104', 1 - 2, Agyemang P. ⚽, Diani D. (A),
105', Tuiloma B. ↓, Ream T. ↑,
105', Hodge T. ↓, Sundstrom F. ↑,
105', Scardina N. ↓, Neeley J. ↑,
105', Perez L. ↓, Luckhurst A. ↑,
111', Marshall-Rutty J. 🟨,
119', 1 - 3, Petkovic N. ⚽, Calderon Vargas K. A. (A),
120+3', 1 - 4, Calderon Vargas K. A. ⚽, Agyemang P. (A),
120+4', Calderon Vargas K. A. 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, North Carolina has had a series of away games.

Charlotte could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Carolina FC
USL Championship
03.05.25	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - North Carolina	0:2 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.25	North Carolina - Charlotte Independence	1:2 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Miami - North Carolina	2:1 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.25	Charlotte Independence - North Carolina	1:3 ✺
USL Championship
12.04.25	New Mexico United - North Carolina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLLWL
- Charlotte FC
MLS
03.05.25	Columbus Crew - Charlotte	4:2 ✺
26.04.25	Charlotte - New England Revolution	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Charlotte - San Diego	3:0 ✺
12.04.25	CF Montréal - Charlotte	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Charlotte - Nashville SC	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LLWWW

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