Match Info

AUSTRALIA: NPL VICTORIA - ROUND 26

Date: 19 August 2023, Saturday


	North Geelong Warriors		South Melbourne

	1	X	2
				Watch
	6.25	5	1.37
	6.14	5.75	1.38
	6.55	5.05	1.36	Watch
	6.4	5	1.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.34 ↑ (3.37)	5.2 ↑ (4.2)	1.36 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Geelong Warriors
14.6%

Draw
17.7%

South Melbourne
67.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

21.3%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

20.7%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Geelong Warriors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that North Geelong Warriors's form might have worsened.

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting South Melbourne's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Geelong Warriors than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for North Geelong Warriors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-14.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for South Melbourne, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

North Geelong Warriors - South Melbourne Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. North Geelong will win (votes: 8 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for North Geelong: 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: )).

North Geelong has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches South Melbourne is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

South Melbourne could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently South Melbourne have a series of guest games.

In this match South Melbourne is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches North Geelong won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4-16.

Including matches at home between the teams North Geelong won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Geelong Warriors
Australian NPL Victoria
08.08.23	North Geelong Warriors - Oakleigh Cannons	2:4 ✺
29.07.23	St Albans Dinamo - North Geelong Warriors	2:0 ✺
22.07.23	North Geelong Warriors - Heidelberg United	0:0 ✺
15.07.23	Dandenong Thunder - North Geelong Warriors	6:0 ✺
09.07.23	North Geelong Warriors - Melbourne Knights	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLTLL
- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
16.08.23	Heidelberg United - South Melbourne	2:1 ✺
12.08.23	Avondale - South Melbourne	2:1 ✺
29.07.23	Altona Magic - South Melbourne	1:4 ✺
22.07.23	Port Melbourne Sharks - South Melbourne	0:4 ✺
15.07.23	Bentleigh Greens - South Melbourne	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
14.05.23	South Melbourne - North Geelong Warriors	2:1
08.07.17	North Geelong Warriors - South Melbourne	1:5
09.04.17	South Melbourne - North Geelong Warriors	2:1
29.05.15	South Melbourne - North Geelong Warriors	7:1

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