The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Perugia 29.1%
Draw 29.9%
Cagliari 41%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.2%
30.8%
33%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36%
30.6%
33.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Perugia's form might have worsened.
Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cagliari's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Perugia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-7.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cagliari, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
20.7%
27.6%
51.7%
Perugia - Cagliari Predictions
Users Predictions:
29 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 6 - 20.7%). Cagliari will win (votes: 15 - 51.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 27.6%). Confidence interval (95%) for Cagliari: 33.5% โ 69.9%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
Perugia has the most likely position - 18 (22.49%), project points - 40, currently - 36, a good chance of relegated (60%), not chance of prom. playoffs.
Cagliari has the most likely position - 6 (43.28%), project points - 56, currently - 51, not chance of relegated, a very good chance of prom. playoffs (98%), a chance of promoted (17%), not chance of win league.
This event has quality35, importance69, match rating52. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Perugia is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches Cagliari is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.
Last 4 head-to-head matches Perugia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-6.
Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.
Bosnia-and-herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Greece
Italy
Serbia
Slovenia
Watch
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