Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 34

Date: 22 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Referee: Marcenaro M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Perugia		Nuova Cosenza

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.25	4.33	Watch
	1.93	3.2	4.1
	1.75	3.25	5.25
	1.98	3.27	4.56
	1.83	3.3	4.5
	1.91	3.38	4.2	Watch
	1.84	3.45	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.01)	3.3 ↑ (3.1)	4.48 ↑ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
50.2%

Draw
28.7%

Nuova Cosenza
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

30%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

30.5%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Nuova Cosenza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nuova Cosenza than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	52.6%	15.8%

Perugia - Nuova Cosenza Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). Cosenza will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 52.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Perugia has the most likely position - 16 (18.77%), project points - 41, currently - 34, a chance of relegated (47%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

Cosenza has the most likely position - 17 (20.43%), project points - 42, currently - 37, a good chance of relegated (54%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 24, very big importance 96, match rating 60. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Perugia won 1.

Perugia is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cosenza is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Perugia is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Perugia won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
15.04.23	Genoa - Perugia	2:0 ✺
10.04.23	Perugia - Modena	0:1 ✺
05.04.23	Perugia - Reggina	1:3 ✺
01.04.23	Perugia - Frosinone	1:1 ✺
18.03.23	Cittadella - Perugia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLLTW
- Nuova Cosenza
Italian Serie B
15.04.23	Nuova Cosenza - Cittadella	1:1 ✺
10.04.23	Palermo - Nuova Cosenza	0:0 ✺
01.04.23	Nuova Cosenza - Pisa	1:0 ✺
18.03.23	Frosinone - Nuova Cosenza	0:1 ✺
12.03.23	Nuova Cosenza - SPAL	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.4 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
04.12.22	Nuova Cosenza - Perugia	0:0
15.02.22	Nuova Cosenza - Perugia	1:2
18.09.21	Perugia - Nuova Cosenza	1:1
13.07.20	Nuova Cosenza - Perugia	2:1
09.12.19	Perugia - Nuova Cosenza	2:2
23.02.19	Perugia - Nuova Cosenza	0:1
30.09.18	Nuova Cosenza - Perugia	1:1

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