Match Info

ESTONIA: Meistriliiga - Round 25

Date: 25 August 2024, Sunday

Location: Manniku Stadium (Nomme)

Referee: Pukk M. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Soccernet TV


	Nõmme United		Tallinna Kalev

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.4	2.1
	2.95	3.5	2.2	Watch
	3.05	3.55	2.25
	2.92	3.44	2.2	Watch
	2.8	3.5	2.15
	2.92	3.52	2.21	Watch
	2.95	3.5	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.49)	3.49 ↓ (3.67)	2.19 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme United
31.6%

Draw
26.4%

Tallinna Kalev
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

25%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

24.9%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nõmme United's form might have worsened.

Tallinna Kalev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nõmme United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tallinna Kalev than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Nõmme United - Tallinna Kalev Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Nõmme United will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Kalev will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Meerits M. (G) 4. Alteberg A. 15. Garcia I. 37. Luka J. 14. Martinez S. 10. Leoke H. 92. Kokka K. G. 24. Adamec M. 18. Velijev M. 17. Ceesay O. 20. Matas K. (C)	88. Forsman O. (G) 23. Teniste T. 26. Kaljumae M. 15. Klavan R. 22. Sotsugov D. 11. Teevali T. (C) 9. Toivonen A. 17. Smirnov R. 10. Jurisoo T. 12. Purje A. 5. Baranov S.
Substitutes
22. Adomah A. 33. Demidov E. 6. Jarviste M. 23. Laanelaid K. 1. Lagus G. (G) 3. Merilai S. 21. Musolitin O. 16. Stefanazzi F. 8. Vain B.	66. Kajari E. 4. Laur K. 89. Liiker S. (G) 18. Mihhailov V. 31. Nigula R. 6. Palutaja H. 8. Sinilaid S. 14. Svedovski A. 55. Tsernjakov J.
Coaches
Klasen M.	Tainio T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Alteberg A. 🟨,
45+5', Smirnov R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Smirnov R. ↓, Svedovski A. ↑,
60', Vain B. ↓, Demidov E. ↑,
60', Ceesay O. ↓, Musolitin O. ↑,
67', Kaljumae M. ↓, Sinilaid S. ↑,
67', Jurisoo T. ↓, Mihhailov V. ↑,
70', Alteberg A. ↓, Merilai S. ↑,
70', Leoke H. ↓, Laanelaid K. ↑,
78', Adamec M. 🟨,
79', 1 - 0, Musolitin O. ⚽, Martinez S. (A),
81', Mihhailov V. 🟨,
83', Martinez S. ↓, Stefanazzi F. ↑,
84', Teevali T. 🟨,
86', Sotsugov D. 🟨,
87', Sotsugov D. ↓, Nigula R. ↑,
87', Matas K. 🟨,
88', Baranov S. ↓, Laur K. ↑,
89', Mihhailov V. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 1, Toivonen A. ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nõmme United won 0.

Two teams has got a chain of failures in the last matches.

Kalev could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Nõmme United have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Nõmme United won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 8-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Nõmme United won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme United
Estonian Meistriliiga
18.08.24	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme United	1:0 ✺
Estonian Cup
14.08.24	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	3:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
11.08.24	Tammeka - Nõmme United	1:1 ✺
04.08.24	Nõmme United - Levadia Tallinn	0:1 ✺
26.07.24	Narva Trans - Nõmme United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTLL
- Tallinna Kalev
Estonian Meistriliiga
17.08.24	Narva Trans - Tallinna Kalev	2:2 ✺
09.08.24	Tallinna Kalev - Kuressaare	0:3 ✺
03.08.24	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme Kalju	0:2 ✺
21.07.24	Paide LM - Tallinna Kalev	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.07.24	Urartu Yerevan - Tallinna Kalev	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
19.05.24	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme United	2:0
20.04.24	Nõmme United - Tallinna Kalev	0:2
Estonian Cup
26.11.23	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme United	3:1
Estonian Esiliiga
06.11.21	Nõmme United - Tallinna Kalev	0:2
03.11.21	Nõmme United - Tallinna Kalev	2:2
22.10.21	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme United	2:2
04.03.21	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme United	2:0

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