Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 25

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Narva Kreenholmi staadion (Narva)

Referee: Pukk M. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Soccernet TV


	Narva Trans		Tallinna Kalev

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.6	6.25
	1.27	5.4	8.3	Watch
	1.34	5.43	7.39
	1.34	5.42	6.95	Watch
	1.36	4.6	6.5
	1.29	5.4	8.15	Watch
	1.41	4.45	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.37)	5.04 ↑ (4.5)	7.13 ↑ (6.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Narva Trans
68.8%

Draw
18.3%

Tallinna Kalev
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.2%

20.2%

13.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.9%

19.4%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Narva Trans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Tallinna Kalev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Narva Trans than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tallinna Kalev than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Narva Trans - Tallinna Kalev Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Narva Trans will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Kalev will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Narva Trans (1.85) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Narva Trans will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Narva Trans (votes: 4 - 80%). Kalev (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Matrossov A. (G) 25. Burjanadze S. 5. Campagna C. 12. Eriks Santos 22. Zuravljov E. 4. Ivanyushin A. 8. Agaptsev S. 21. Maksimkin M. (C) 80. Viidas S. 11. Kozhushko M. 10. Gero A.	89. Weinstein M. (G) 6. Palutaja H. 15. Ojamaa H. 45. Bamijoko A. 22. Sotsugov D. 21. Petrunin D. 17. Smirnov R. 18. Mihhailov V. (C) 14. Svedovski A. 10. Jurisoo T. 9. Usta T.
Substitutes
47. Baljabkin N. 37. Besigirskis A. 9. Doke J. 19. Elysee 14. Filatov A. 44. Geveller D. 16. Kondrattsev S. 35. Kraizmer A. (G) 29. Kudriashov V. 77. Polyakov D. 6. Slein G.	50. Jallow M. 5. Kollo A. 12. Purje A. 16. Surogin A. 19. Tomberg M. 98. Vetkal M. (G)
Coaches
Kozhukhovskyi R.	Barengrub A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Ivanyushin A. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Agaptsev S. ⚽, Kozhushko M. (A),
43', Ojamaa H. 🟥,
45+2', Barengrub A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ivanyushin A. ↓, Filatov A. ↑,
46', Svedovski A. ↓, Surogin A. ↑,
46', Smirnov R. ↓, Jallow M. ↑,
53', 2 - 0, Kozhushko M. ⚽, Campagna C. (A),
63', Kozhushko M. ↓, Slein G. ↑,
63', Maksimkin M. ↓, Doke J. ↑,
63', Jurisoo T. ↓, Purje A. ↑,
63', Mihhailov V. ↓, Tomberg M. ↑,
73', Bamijoko A. ↓, Kollo A. ↑,
81', Sotsugov D. 🟨,
83', Zuravljov E. ↓, Elysee ↑,
83', Agaptsev S. ↓, Polyakov D. ↑,
88', Jallow M. 🟨,
89', Eriks Santos 🟨,
89', 🟨,
90', Polyakov D. 🟨,
90+2', Tomberg M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Narva Trans won 4.

Narva Trans has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kalev has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Narva Trans is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Narva Trans won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 38:29. (average 1.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Narva Trans won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 25:12. (average 2.3:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Narva Trans
Estonian Meistriliiga
17.08.25	Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Narva Trans - Tammeka	4:1 ✺
02.08.25	Narva Trans - Flora Tallinn	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Paide LM - Narva Trans	2:0 ✺
12.07.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWTLT
- Tallinna Kalev
Estonian Meistriliiga
17.08.25	Tallinna Kalev - Levadia Tallinn	1:6 ✺
09.08.25	Paide LM - Tallinna Kalev	2:2 ✺
05.08.25	Tallinna Kalev - Pärnu Vaprus	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Nõmme Kalju - Tallinna Kalev	6:2 ✺
13.07.25	Tallinna Kalev - Harju JK Laagri	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
19.05.25	Tallinna Kalev - Narva Trans	2:5
08.04.25	Narva Trans - Tallinna Kalev	1:0
Club Friendly
02.02.25	Narva Trans - Tallinna Kalev	5:2
Estonian Meistriliiga
23.10.24	Tallinna Kalev - Narva Trans	0:1
17.08.24	Narva Trans - Tallinna Kalev	2:2
12.05.24	Tallinna Kalev - Narva Trans	1:0
13.04.24	Narva Trans - Tallinna Kalev	2:2

Upcoming Matches