Match Info

Date: 8 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Marschweg-Stadion (Oldenburg)

Referee: Gansloweit T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport


	Oldenburg		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.3	2.5
	2.6	3.3	2.6
	2.5	3.5	2.48
	2.6	3.35	2.5
	2.78	3.61	2.52
	2.55	3.2	2.45
	2.63	3.48	2.49	Watch
	2.6	3.35	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (1.81)	3.39 ↓ (3.65)	2.51 ↓ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oldenburg
35.6%

Draw
27.4%

Erzgebirge Aue
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

25.1%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

24.4%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oldenburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oldenburg's form might have worsened.

Erzgebirge Aue has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Erzgebirge Aue's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oldenburg than the current prediction. (+16.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oldenburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Erzgebirge Aue, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	29.4%	35.3%

Oldenburg - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Oldenburg will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Aue will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oldenburg: 12.6% – 58%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 9 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Oldenburg is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Aue is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Oldenburg could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Our prediction for today's Oldenburg to win the game is with odds 2.56.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Oldenburg
German 3 Bundesliga
02.10.22	Viktoria Köln - Oldenburg	1:2 ✺
17.09.22	Oldenburg - Bayreuth	1:1 ✺
10.09.22	Borussia Dortmund II - Oldenburg	1:2 ✺
03.09.22	Oldenburg - Osnabrück	4:3 ✺
29.08.22	Duisburg - Oldenburg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.3 WTWWT
- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
30.09.22	Erzgebirge Aue - Meppen	3:0 ✺
16.09.22	1860 München - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
11.09.22	Erzgebirge Aue - Zwickau	0:1 ✺
02.09.22	Rot-Weiß Essen - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
28.08.22	Erzgebirge Aue - Dynamo Dresden	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLLL

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