Match Info

Date: 19 March 2022, Saturday


	Oldham Athletic		Exeter City

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.8	1.7
	4.33	3.6	1.77
	4.75	3.8	1.72
	4.4	3.65	1.72
	4.92	3.87	1.74
	4.6	3.6	1.73
	4.75	3.9	1.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.64 ↑ (3.33)	3.75 ↑ (3.3)	1.74 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oldham Athletic
20.4%

Draw
25.2%

Exeter City
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

28.2%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.1%

21.3%

58.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oldham Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oldham Athletic's form might have worsened.

Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Exeter City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oldham Athletic than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Oldham Athletic - Exeter City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs)).

Oldham has the most likely position - 23 (45.01%), has project points - 43, has currently - 31, has a chance of relegated (46%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Exeter has the most likely position - 2 (25.66%), has project points - 79, has currently - 61, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of prom. playoffs (36%), has a good chance of promoted (58%), has a small chance of win league (8%).

This event has very small quality 9, big importance 71, match rating 40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Oldham won 2.

Oldham is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Exeter is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Oldham have a series of guest games.

In this match Exeter is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Oldham won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Oldham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oldham Athletic
English League Two
15.03.22	Walsall - Oldham Athletic	2:1 ✺
12.03.22	Swindon Town - Oldham Athletic	1:0 ✺
05.03.22	Oldham Athletic - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
01.03.22	Crawley Town - Oldham Athletic	2:2 ✺
26.02.22	Colchester United - Oldham Athletic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLTT
- Exeter City
English League Two
15.03.22	Exeter City - Crawley Town	2:1 ✺
12.03.22	Exeter City - Salford City	0:0 ✺
08.03.22	Exeter City - Swindon Town	3:1 ✺
04.03.22	Mansfield Town - Exeter City	2:1 ✺
26.02.22	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
13.11.21	Exeter City - Oldham Athletic	2:1
23.03.21	Oldham Athletic - Exeter City	2:1
21.11.20	Exeter City - Oldham Athletic	1:2
11.02.20	Exeter City - Oldham Athletic	5:1
20.08.19	Oldham Athletic - Exeter City	0:1
27.04.19	Exeter City - Oldham Athletic	1:0
22.12.18	Oldham Athletic - Exeter City	2:3

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