Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 22 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Obrenovic R. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
Albania	Tring Sport 6
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 7
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 5, Pickx+ Sports 5, Play Sports 7, Play Sports 7
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Brazil	HBO Max
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Colombia	Disney+
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Denmark	Viaplay
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France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free, New World TV
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Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
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Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
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Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
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Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii Spor 6, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 7
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Sporting Lisbon		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.6	3.2
	2.15	3.85	3.25
	2.17	3.79	3.28
	5.07	4.22	1.59	Watch
	2.28	3.67	3.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.16)	3.83 ↑ (3.73)	2.89 ↓ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
37.3%

Draw
27%

Olympique Marseille
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

25.6%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

27.1%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting Lisbon's form might have worsened.

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Olympique Marseille's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sporting Lisbon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Olympique Marseille, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.3%	24%	30.7%

Sporting Lisbon - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 75 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 34 - 45.3%). Marseille will win (votes: 23 - 30.7%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 24%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 34% – 56.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 12 - 42.9%). Marseille (votes: 8 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 8 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Marseille (2.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Sporting (1.95) (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Marseille (2.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Marseille (1.67) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 41 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 19 - 46.3%). Marseille (votes: 14 - 34.1%). Tie (votes: 8 - 19.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 6. Debast Z. 25. Inacio G. 20. Araujo M. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 52. Simoes J. 7. Quenda G. 17. Trincao 8. Goncalves P. 97. Suarez L.	1. Rulli G. (G) 22. Weah T. 28. Pavard B. 21. Aguerd N. 5. Balerdi L. (C) 33. Emerson 10. Greenwood M. 18. Vermeeren A. 23. Hojbjerg P. 14. Paixao I. 97. Aubameyang P.
Substitutes
27. Alisson Santos 10. Catamo G. 26. Diomande O. 89. Ioannidis F. 14. Kochorashvili G. 91. Mangas R. 2. Matheus Reis 5. Morita H. 72. Quaresma E. 28. Ribeiro R. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)	12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 6. Garcia U. 8. Gomes A. 62. Murillo M. 26. Nadir B. 17. O'Riley M. 40. Van Neck J. (G) 34. Vaz R.
Coaches
Borges R.	De Zerbi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', Balerdi L. 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Paixao I. ⚽, Aubameyang P. (A),
37', De Zerbi R. 🟨,
39', Emerson 🟨,
45+2', Emerson 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Vermeeren A. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
46', Greenwood M. ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
64', Simoes J. ↓, Ioannidis F. ↑,
64', Quenda G. ↓, Catamo G. ↑,
67', Weah T. ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
67', Paixao I. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Catamo G. ⚽, Goncalves P. (A),
80', Fresneda I. ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
80', Debast Z. ↓, Diomande O. ↑,
82', Aubameyang P. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Alisson Santos ⚽, Ioannidis F. (A),
90', Araujo M. 🟨,
90', Pavard B. 🟨,
90+3', Araujo M. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
90+5', Goncalves P. 🟨,

Preview

Sporting is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Marseille is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sporting might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Marseille: Blanco R. (Inactive) Garcia U. (Inactive) Gouiri A. (Shoulder Injury) Kondogbia G. (Calf Injury) Lirola P. (Inactive) Maupay N. (Inactive) Medina F. (Ankle Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury) Vermot T. (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.8:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Sporting Lisbon - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 44.3%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Paços de Ferreira - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Braga	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Napoli - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
27.09.25	Estoril Praia - Sporting Lisbon	0:1 ✺
22.09.25	Sporting Lisbon - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WTLWW
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
18.10.25	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	6:2 ✺
04.10.25	Metz - Olympique Marseille	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Ajax	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
26.09.25	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	1:2 ✺
22.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
12.10.22	Sporting Lisbon - Olympique Marseille	0:2
04.10.22	Olympique Marseille - Sporting Lisbon	4:1
Club Friendly
28.07.18	Sporting Lisbon - Olympique Marseille	1:1
18.07.17	Olympique Marseille - Sporting Lisbon	2:1

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