Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens)

Referee: Frappart S. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, StarTimes App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
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Europe	TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
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Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
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Italy	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Japan	DAZN Japan
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Netherlands	Viaplay
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Venezuela	Disney+


	Lens		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.6	2.7	Watch
	2.52	3.45	2.72
	2.7	3.65	2.63
	2.95	2.69	2.84	Watch
	2.66	3.69	2.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (2.86)	3.42 ↓ (3.6)	2.7 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lens
36.1%

Draw
28.2%

Olympique Marseille
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

26.6%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

26.5%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	21.2%	60.6%

Lens - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Lens will win (votes: 5 - 16.1%). Marseille will win (votes: 20 - 64.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 19.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 47.7% – 81.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Lens (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Marseille (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Marseille (2.01) (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

DC - draw (1.52) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Lens (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Marseille (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Risser R. (G) 24. Gradit J. 6. Baidoo S. 20. Sarr M. 2. Aguilar R. 8. Sangare M. 28. Thomasson A. (C) 14. Udol M. 10. Thauvin F. 22. Said W. 11. Edouard O.	1. Rulli G. (G) 62. Murillo M. 28. Pavard B. 21. Aguerd N. (C) 33. Emerson 17. O'Riley M. 18. Vermeeren A. 22. Weah T. 10. Greenwood M. 14. Paixao I. 34. Vaz R.
Substitutes
23. Abdulhamid S. 5. Bulatovic A. 38. Fofana R. 25. Ganiou I. 29. Guilavogui M. 1. Gurtner R. (G) 3. Machado D. 19. Sima A. 7. Sotoca F.	97. Aubameyang P. 50. Bakola D. 5. Balerdi L. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 6. Garcia U. 8. Gomes A. 23. Hojbjerg P. 26. Nadir B.
Coaches
Sage P.	De Zerbi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Greenwood M. ⚽, Weah T. (A),
22', Pavard B. 🟨,
23', 1 - 1, Edouard O. (Pen),
34', Thomasson A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Vaz R. ↓, Aubameyang P. ↑,
52', Weah T. ↓, Balerdi L. ↑,
53', 2 - 1, Pavard B. (Own goal),
61', Pavard B. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
69', Said W. ↓, Guilavogui M. ↑,
74', O'Riley M. ↓, Hojbjerg P. ↑,
74', Murillo M. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
81', Thauvin F. ↓, Sima A. ↑,
81', Edouard O. ↓, Fofana R. ↑,
84', Guilavogui M. 🟨,
85', Aguilar R. ↓, Abdulhamid S. ↑,
87', Balerdi L. 🟨,
88', Sangare M. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lens won 3.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Marseille may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Lens: Bermont A. (Injury) Sylla F. (Injury)

There will not play in Marseille: Gouiri A. (Shoulder Injury) Kondogbia G. (Calf Injury) Medina F. (Ankle Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Lens won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Lens won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 0.9:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
19.10.25	Lens - Paris FC	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Auxerre - Lens	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	Rennes - Lens	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Lens - Lille	3:0 ✺
14.09.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Lens	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWTWL
- Olympique Marseille
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
18.10.25	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	6:2 ✺
04.10.25	Metz - Olympique Marseille	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Ajax	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
26.09.25	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
08.03.25	Olympique Marseille - Lens	0:1
23.11.24	Lens - Olympique Marseille	1:3
28.04.24	Olympique Marseille - Lens	2:1
12.11.23	Lens - Olympique Marseille	1:0
06.05.23	Lens - Olympique Marseille	2:1
22.10.22	Olympique Marseille - Lens	0:1
22.01.22	Lens - Olympique Marseille	0:2

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