Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia, TV5 Monde Pacifique
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	ART Sport 4
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Cignal Play
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, TV5 Monde
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360


	Olympique Marseille		Le Havre

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.25	9.5	Watch
	1.32	5.4	9.2
	1.32	5.67	10.98
	1.32	5.00	9.27	Watch
	1.36	5.61	9.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 (1.32)	5.39 ↑ (5.37)	9.73 ↑ (9.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
72.4%

Draw
17.8%

Le Havre
9.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.1%

17.7%

10.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.6%

17.6%

10.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Le Havre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.5%	8.1%	6.5%

Olympique Marseille - Le Havre Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 - Marseille (5.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Marseille (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (53 of 61 users predict this - 86.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.42% – 95.36%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 19 - 95%). Le Havre (votes: 1 - 5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Lange J. (G) 28. Pavard B. 21. Aguerd N. 5. Balerdi L. (C) 33. Emerson 17. O'Riley M. 23. Hojbjerg P. 10. Greenwood M. 8. Gomes A. 14. Paixao I. 97. Aubameyang P.	99. Diaw M. (G) 7. Nego L. 13. Doucoure F. 93. Sangante A. (C) 4. Lloris G. 18. Zouaoui Y. 8. Kechta Y. 15. Seko A. 14. Ndiaye R. 70. Samatta A. 45. Soumare I.
Substitutes
. Bakola D. 4. Egan-Riley C. 6. Garcia U. 62. Murillo M. 26. Nadir B. 1. Rulli G. (G) 34. Vaz R. 18. Vermeeren A. 22. Weah T.	26. Ebonog S. 11. Kyeremeh G. 10. Mambimbi F. 78. Mosengo D. N. 77. Mpasi-Nzau L. (G) 21. Namli Y. 9. Pizarro D. 94. Toure A. 6. Youte Kinkoue E.
Coaches
De Zerbi R.	Digard D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Kechta Y. ⚽, Soumare I. (A),
34', Lloris G. 🟥,
35', 1 - 1, Greenwood M. (Pen),
38', Samatta A. ↓, Youte Kinkoue E. ↑,
45+4', Zouaoui Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (5 - 1)
65', Doucoure F. ↓, Toure A. ↑,
65', Ndiaye R. ↓, Ebonog S. ↑,
65', Emerson ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
65', Gomes A. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
66', O'Riley M. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Greenwood M. ⚽, Paixao I. (A),
71', Paixao I. ↓, Weah T. ↑,
72', 3 - 1, Greenwood M. ⚽, Vaz R. (A),
76', 4 - 1, Greenwood M. ⚽, Pavard B. (A),
78', Nadir B. 🟨,
80', Greenwood M. ↓, Bakola D. ↑,
84', Kechta Y. ↓, Kyeremeh G. ↑,
84', Seko A. ↓, Namli Y. ↑,
88', 5 - 1, Vaz R. ⚽, Aubameyang P. (A),
90', Murillo M. 🟨,
90+2', 5 - 2, Toure A. ⚽, Namli Y. (A),
90+3', 6 - 2, Murillo M. ⚽, Nadir B. (A),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 14).

Marseille is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Le Havre has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Marseille is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Gouiri A. (Upper-Body Injury) Kondogbia G. (Calf Injury) Medina F. (Ankle Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Le Havre: Delaine T. (Injury) Khadra R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Vaz R. (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Marseille will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:3. (average 2.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 2.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
04.10.25	Metz - Olympique Marseille	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Ajax	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
26.09.25	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	1:2 ✺
22.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Real Madrid - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWWWL
- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
05.10.25	Le Havre - Rennes	2:2 ✺
28.09.25	Metz - Le Havre	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Le Havre - Lorient	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Strasbourg - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Le Havre - Nice	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
10.05.25	Le Havre - Olympique Marseille	1:3
05.01.25	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	5:1
19.05.24	Le Havre - Olympique Marseille	1:2
08.10.23	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	3:0
Coupe De France
22.01.12	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	N/A

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