Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 8

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	13:15	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	17:15	DAZN
Belgium	17:15	DAZN 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	17:15	Arena Sport 4
Bulgaria	18:15	Nova Sport
Canada	12:15	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	13:15	Disney+
China	00:15	Migu
Colombia	11:15	Disney+
Croatia	17:15	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	17:15	Viaplay
Finland	18:15	Viaplay
France	17:15	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	20:15	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	17:15	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	00:15	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	23:15	Vidio
Italy	17:15	Ligue 1+
Kazakhstan	22:15	Setanta Sports
Mexico	10:15	FOX One
Netherlands	17:15	Viaplay
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	17:15	MaxTV GO
Norway	17:15	Viaplay
Peru	11:15	Disney+
Romania	18:15	Voyo
Serbia	17:15	Arena Sport 4
Slovenia	17:15	Arena Sport 4
South Korea	01:15	Coupang Play
Spain	17:15	DAZN Espana
Sweden	17:15	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	17:15	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	00:15	ELTA Sports 1
Turkey	19:15	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Digiturk
Ukraine	18:15	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	16:15	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	13:15	Disney+
Usa	12:15	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	12:15	Disney+
International	16:15	OneFootball TV


	Olympique Marseille		Le Havre

	1	X	2
	1.44	5.00	6.00	Watch
	1.43	5.00	6.25
	1.42	4.90	6.10	Watch
	1.45	5.10	6.90
	1.51	4.7	5.7	Watch
	1.46	4.95	6.55
	1.45	5.08	6.49	Watch
	1.45	4.95	6.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.61)	4.96 ↑ (4.08)	6.25 ↑ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
65.6%

Draw
19.2%

Le Havre
15.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.5%

23.1%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

22%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Olympique Marseille's performance.

Le Havre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olympique Marseille that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	4.5%	4.5%

Olympique Marseille - Le Havre Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Marseille (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Marseille (1.48) (votes: 96%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.93% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. De Lange J. (G) 22. Weah T. (C) 4. Egan-Riley C. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 6. Nnadi T. 23. Hojbjerg P. 77. Harit A. 8. Abdelli H. 14. Paixao I. 9. Gouiri A.	93. Gallon G. (G) 20. Ouziad D. 15. Seko A. 6. Mwanga J. 5. Touba A. 27. Vinette E. K. 14. Ndiaye R. (C) 26. Ebonog S. 7. Richardson A. 38. Fofana R. 25. Samatta A.
Substitutes
48. Abdallah K. 74. Bezahaf K. 25. Garcia U. 7. Gomes A. 42. Kamissoko N. 19. Kondogbia G. 11. Maupay N. 18. Meite B. 92. Vermot T. (G)	16. Bodart A. (G) 33. Dongopandji H. 9. Maja J. 17. Mizuta K. 78. Mosengo D. N. 30. Nakamura S. 97. N'Diaye M. 23. Sasso V. 24. Zohouri G.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Digard D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Egan-Riley C. ⚽, Emerson (A),
33', 2 - 0, Weah T. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
50', 3 - 0, Paixao I. ⚽, Gouiri A. (A),
55', 4 - 0, Abdelli H. ⚽,
61', Ndiaye R. ↓, Maja J. ↑,
61', Samatta A. ↓, Nakamura S. ↑,
77', Richardson A. ↓, Mosengo D. N. ↑,
77', Vinette E. K. ↓, N'Diaye M. ↑,
77', 4 - 1, Maja J. (Penalty Awarded),
78', Harit A. ↓, Abdallah K. ↑,
78', Gouiri A. ↓, Maupay N. ↑,
83', Ebonog S. 🟨,
84', Abdelli H. ↓, Kamissoko N. ↑,
84', Hojbjerg P. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
84', Fofana R. ↓, Mizuta K. ↑,
86', 4 - 2, N'Diaye M. ⚽,
89', 4 - 3, Maja J. ⚽, Mizuta K. (A),
90+2', Paixao I. ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
90+10', Seko A. 🟨,
90+11', N'Diaye M. 🟨,
90+12', Maupay N. 🟨,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 10th and 18th in the Relegation - Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 5.

In recent outings, Marseille has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Le Havre is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Le Havre could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Marseille for this game.

Confirmed absences for Marseille: Cornelius D. (Hip Injury).

Confirmed absences for Le Havre: Jelert E. (Thigh Injury) Mambimbi F. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Mpasi-Nzau L. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Pembele T. (Muscle Injury) Toure A. (Knee Injury) Zagadou S. (Knee Injury).

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Marseille has recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:5 (averaging 2.9:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Marseille against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 14:3 goals (averaging 3.5:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Marseille	8	4	0	4	18:13	5	12
18	Le Havre	8	0	2	6	8:15	-7	2

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Marseille: 0.82% Le Havre: 0.11%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
UEFA Europa League
22.10.26	Sturm Graz - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
18.10.26	Angers - Olympique Marseille	2:5 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.10.26	Olympique Marseille - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
11.10.26	Troyes - Olympique Marseille	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLWL
- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
18.10.26	Le Havre - Auxerre	1:3 ✺
10.10.26	Lille - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Toulouse - Le Havre	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Le Havre - Angers	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Le Havre - Brest	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
10.05.26	Le Havre - Olympique Marseille	0:1
18.10.25	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	6:2
10.05.25	Le Havre - Olympique Marseille	1:3
05.01.25	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	5:1
19.05.24	Le Havre - Olympique Marseille	1:2
08.10.23	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	3:0
Coupe De France
22.01.12	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	N/A

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