Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 33

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Océane (Le Havre)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Brazil	Caze TV
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 5
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Le Havre		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.6	2.05	Watch
	3.4	3.7	2.05
	3.45	3.7	2.02	Watch
	3.53	3.9	2.08
	3.36	3.88	2.01	Watch
	3.4	3.5	2
	3.66	3.81	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↓ (4.2)	3.73 ↓ (3.93)	2.04 ↑ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Havre
27.6%

Draw
25.6%

Olympique Marseille
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

24%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.2%

23.8%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Le Havre's performance.

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Olympique Marseille might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Le Havre that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Olympique Marseille could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32.3%	16.1%	51.6%

Le Havre - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Le Havre will win (votes: 10 - 33.3%). Marseille will win (votes: 15 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 32.1% – 67.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Havre (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Marseille (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Le Havre (1.88) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH -1 - Marseille (2.59) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Havre (votes: 7 - 50%). Marseille (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Diaw M. (G) 93. Sangante A. (C) 15. Seko A. 4. Lloris G. 18. Zouaoui Y. 14. Ndiaye R. 19. Gourna-Douath L. 13. Doucoure F. 17. Boufal S. 45. Soumare I. 25. Samatta A.	1. Rulli G. (G) 28. Pavard B. 5. Balerdi L. 32. Medina F. 33. Emerson 6. Nnadi T. 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 10. Greenwood M. 27. Timber Q. 14. Paixao I. 9. Gouiri A.
Substitutes
26. Ebonog S. 8. Kechta Y. 11. Kyeremeh G. 10. Mambimbi F. 77. Mpasi-Nzau L. (G) 7. Nego L. 32. Pembele T. 27. Vinette E. K. 6. Youte Kinkoue E.	35. Bezahaf K. 12. De Lange J. (G) 72. Hamzaoui H. 71. Kamissoko N. 78. Lago E. 70. Lamare El Kadmiri U. 76. Mmadi T. 11. Nwaneri E. 18. Vermeeren A.
Coaches
Digard D.	Beye H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Boufal S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Seko A. 🟨,
55', 0 - 1, Greenwood M. (Penalty Awarded),
57', Zouaoui Y. 🟨,
59', Nnadi T. 🟨,
66', Nnadi T. ↓, Vermeeren A. ↑,
71', Boufal S. (Penalty Awarded),
72', Boufal S. ↓, Ebonog S. ↑,
72', Doucoure F. ↓, Pembele T. ↑,
80', Zouaoui Y. ↓, Vinette E. K. ↑,
81', Timber Q. 🟨,
87', Timber Q. ↓, Kamissoko N. ↑,
87', Greenwood M. ↓, Lago E. ↑,
88', Ebonog S. 🟨,
89', Gourna-Douath L. ↓, Kechta Y. ↑,
90', Gouiri A. ↓, Lamare El Kadmiri U. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Le Havre won 0.

In recent matches, Le Havre has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Marseille is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Marseille may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Marseille is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Le Havre: Toure A. (Knee Injury) Zagadou S. (Injury)

There will not play in Marseille: Abdelli H. (Coach's decision) Aguerd N. (Groin Injury) Aubameyang P. (Suspended) Egan-Riley C. (Injury) Kondogbia G. (Thigh Injury) Nadir B. (Injury) Traore H. J. (Muscle Injury) Weah T. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Le Havre won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:19. (average 0.8:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Le Havre won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Marseille: 1.57% Le Havre: 0.18%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4:7	-3	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
03.05.26	Lille - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Le Havre - Metz	4:4 ✺
18.04.26	Angers - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Nice - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Le Havre - Auxerre	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TTTTT
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
02.05.26	Nantes - Olympique Marseille	3:0 ✺
26.04.26	Olympique Marseille - Nice	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Lorient - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Olympique Marseille - Metz	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
18.10.25	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	6:2
10.05.25	Le Havre - Olympique Marseille	1:3
05.01.25	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	5:1
19.05.24	Le Havre - Olympique Marseille	1:2
08.10.23	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	3:0
Coupe De France
22.01.12	Olympique Marseille - Le Havre	N/A

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