Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 30

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

Referee: Wattellier E. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lorient		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.5	1.62	Watch
	4.9	4.25	1.62	Watch
	4.86	4.55	1.68
	4.54	4.36	1.67	Watch
	4.6	4	1.62
	4.85	4.59	1.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.75 ↑ (3.81)	4.38 ↑ (3.77)	1.64 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorient
20.1%

Draw
21.8%

Olympique Marseille
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

25%

50.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

24.4%

51.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Olympique Marseille's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Olympique Marseille, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	15.2%	75.8%

Lorient - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Lorient will win (votes: 3 - 9.4%). Marseille will win (votes: 24 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 15.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 60% – 90%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Marseille (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Mvogo Y. (C) 5. Meite B. 32. Adjei N. 25. Faye A. 77. Katseris P. 62. Avom A. 8. Cadiou N. 44. Yongwa D. 17. Makengo J. 12. Dieng B. 10. Pagis P.	1. Rulli G. (G) 28. Pavard B. 5. Balerdi L. 33. Emerson 20. Traore H. J. 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 8. Abdelli H. 14. Paixao I. 10. Greenwood M. 9. Gouiri A. 17. Aubameyang P.
Substitutes
6. Abergel L. 7. Fadiga B. 2. Igor Silva 21. Kamara B. (G) 29. Karim D. 35. Semedo D. 97. Siba S. 28. Soumano S. 15. Tosin A.	12. De Lange J. (G) 72. Hamzaoui H. 71. Kamissoko N. 78. Lago E. 35. Lamare El Kadmiri U. 26. Nadir B. 11. Nwaneri E. 18. Vermeeren A. 22. Weah T.
Coaches
Pantaloni O.	Beye H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Katseris P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Paixao I. ↓, Weah T. ↑,
57', Pavard B. 🟨,
58', 2 - 0, Dieng B. ⚽, Pagis P. (A),
59', Abdelli H. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
59', Gouiri A. ↓, Nwaneri E. ↑,
69', Makengo J. ↓, Abergel L. ↑,
74', Nadir B. 🟨,
75', Dieng B. ↓, Tosin A. ↑,
76', Hojbjerg P. ↓, Vermeeren A. ↑,
76', Aubameyang P. ↓, Lamare El Kadmiri U. ↑,
82', Katseris P. ↓, Igor Silva ↑,
82', Pagis P. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
90', Weah T. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lorient may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Marseille is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lorient: Bamba M. (Injury) Fadiga B. (Injury) Kouassi A. (Yellow Cards) Le Bris T. (Knee Injury) Talbi M. (Calf Injury) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Marseille: Aguerd N. (Groin Injury) Egan-Riley C. (Injury) Kondogbia G. (Thigh Injury) Medina F. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Lorient: Abergel L. (Ankle Injury) Karim D. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 21:42. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:18. (average 0.7:1.8).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Marseille: 0.93% Lorient: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
12.04.26	Lyon - Lorient	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Lorient - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Toulouse - Lorient	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Lorient - Lens	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Lille - Lorient	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LTLWT
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
10.04.26	Olympique Marseille - Metz	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Lille	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Auxerre	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
12.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	4:0
12.05.24	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	3:1
10.12.23	Lorient - Olympique Marseille	2:4
09.04.23	Lorient - Olympique Marseille	0:0
14.01.23	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	3:1
08.05.22	Lorient - Olympique Marseille	0:3
17.10.21	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	4:1

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