Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Palogrande (Manizales)

Referee: Villa Zapata J. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Once Caldas		Fortaleza CEIF

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	4.33	Watch
	1.88	3.25	4.25	Watch
	1.77	3.55	4.9
	1.93	3.24	4.24	Watch
	1.91	3	4
	1.83	3.3	4.57	Watch
	1.76	3.33	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.67)	3.28 ↓ (3.55)	4.47 ↓ (5.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Once Caldas
50.5%

Draw
28.5%

Fortaleza CEIF
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

26.3%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

25.3%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Once Caldas's form might have worsened.

Fortaleza CEIF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Once Caldas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Once Caldas - Fortaleza CEIF Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Once Caldas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Once Caldas will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Parra J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 16. Castano J. 2. Cardona J. 30. Tamayo K. 88. Mejia R. 5. Rojas I. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A. 10. Sanchez L. 7. Barrios M. 17. Moreno D. (C)	12. Santander C. (G) 16. Cajares J. 6. Diaz Y. 18. Balanta J. 13. Pernia M. 14. Pico L. (C) 17. Balanta Carabali K. A. 11. Amaya A. 33. Arroyo A. 26. Rivas Torres R. D. 29. Wilke T.
Substitutes
12. Aguirre J. (G) 9. Gomez P. 70. Quinones D. 42. Quinones J. 39. Rincon H. 18. Riquett J. 20. Roa A. 19. Rojas T. 28. Zuleta M.	15. Cuero S. 7. Martinez J. 8. Navarro S. 20. Orozco C. 19. Pulicastro F. 3. Ramirez D. 1. Silva M. (G) 23. Sinisterra J. 10. Velasquez J.
Coaches
Herrera H.	Oliveros S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', Pernia M. ↓, Cuero S. ↑,
10', 1 - 0, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ⚽, Moreno D. (A),
17', 1 - 1, Amaya A. ⚽, Arroyo A. (A),
20', Arroyo A. 🟨,
27', Cardona J. 🟨,
36', Mejia R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Mejia R. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
47', 2 - 1, Moreno D. ⚽,
52', Quinones J. 🟨,
56', Barrios M. 🟨,
57', 2 - 2, Arroyo A. (Penalty Awarded),
59', Castano J. 🟨,
60', Barrios M. ↓, Gomez P. ↑,
67', Amaya A. ↓, Navarro S. ↑,
67', Balanta Carabali K. A. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
67', Rivas Torres R. D. ↓, Velasquez J. ↑,
75', 3 - 2, Moreno D. ⚽, Cuesta Santos J. D. (A),
78', Sanchez L. ↓, Rojas T. ↑,
79', Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↓, Quinones D. ↑,
80', Diaz Y. ↓, Orozco C. ↑,
86', 4 - 2, Quinones D. ⚽,
89', Moreno D. ↓, Roa A. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Once Caldas is a strong favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Once Caldas	13	4	4	5	16:16	0	16
16	Fortaleza	13	1	8	4	14:19	-5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
15.02.26	Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Once Caldas - Junior Barranquilla	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Alianza Valledupar - Once Caldas	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Once Caldas - Jaguares de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
29.01.26	América de Cali - Once Caldas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWTTT
- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A
15.02.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Atlético Nacional - Fortaleza CEIF	4:1 ✺
07.02.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Llaneros SA	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
20.07.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Once Caldas	2:1
01.02.25	Once Caldas - Fortaleza CEIF	2:1
01.11.24	Once Caldas - Fortaleza CEIF	0:2
Colombian Copa
25.04.24	Once Caldas - Fortaleza CEIF	0:1
Colombian Primera A
13.04.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Once Caldas	2:0
Colombian Copa
09.04.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Once Caldas	2:1

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