Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 14 August 2026, Friday

Location: Gazovik Stadium (Orenburg)

Referee: Frolov A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Sport Asia
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Russia	Match TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Orenburg		Lokomotiv Moscow

	1	X	2
	2.74	3.52	2.64
	2.7	3.45	2.55
	2.98	3.55	2.42	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↓ (3.1)	3.46 ↓ (3.6)	2.53 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orenburg
34.5%

Draw
27.7%

Lokomotiv Moscow
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

25.4%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

24.8%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Orenburg's performance.

Lokomotiv Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lokomotiv Moscow might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Orenburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lokomotiv Moscow than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lokomotiv Moscow could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Orenburg will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Lokomotiv will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ovsyannikov B. (G) 24. Sivis M. 6. Palacios J. 5. Tataev A. (C) 26. Tsenov E. 78. Kul R. 57. Bolotov E. 8. Puebla D. 11. Nazarenko E. 20. Rybchinskiy D. 30. Guzina G.	22. Lantratov I. (G) 45. Silyanov A. 5. Nyamsi G. 85. Morozov E. 24. Nenakhov M. 7. Bakaev Z. 14. Dzhikiya G. 10. Batrakov A. (C) 75. Eremeev I. 11. Rakov V. 19. Rudenko A.
Substitutes
19. Alexandre Jesus 21. Bosch B. 27. Golybin R. 65. Ivashchenko I. 77. Kasadzhikov A. 38. Kasimov A. 95. Khodanovich A. (G) 63. Minatulaev O. 9. Savelyev M. 59. Syshchenko M. 18. Vasiljev D. 3. Vedernikov D.	74. Chevardin D. 47. Godyaev D. 63. Golubev V. 8. Kovalenko A. 3. Lucas Fasson 99. Myalkovskiy R. 9. Pinyaev S. 59. Pogostnov E. 17. Saltykov N. 88. Shchetinin M. 32. Vera L. 16. Veselov D. (G)
Coaches
Akhmetzyanov I.	Galaktionov M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Batrakov A. ⚽, Silyanov A. (A),
29', Bolotov E. 🟨,
41', Kul R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Rybchinskiy D. ↓, Kasadzhikov A. ↑,
61', Guzina G. ↓, Alexandre Jesus ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Kul R. ⚽,
66', Lantratov I. 🟨,
69', Kasadzhikov A. (Penalty Awarded),
72', Rudenko A. ↓, Pinyaev S. ↑,
72', Bakaev Z. ↓, Myalkovskiy R. ↑,
78', Kul R. ↓, Golybin R. ↑,
79', Rakov V. ↓, Saltykov N. ↑,
86', Tsenov E. ↓, Vedernikov D. ↑,
86', Puebla D. ↓, Bosch B. ↑,
90+3', Nenakhov M. ↓, Kovalenko A. ↑,
90+3', Eremeev I. ↓, Lucas Fasson ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 0.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Recently, Lokomotiv has had a series of home games.

Lokomotiv will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lokomotiv: Komlichenko N. (Knee Injury) Mitryushkin A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lokomotiv: Montes C. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 16:36. (average 0.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Orenburg won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:20. (average 1.1:2.2).

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Lokomotiv Moscow: 0.84% Orenburg: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Orenburg	10	2	6	2	11:10	1	12
12	Lokomotiv Moscow	10	2	4	4	13:11	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Orenburg - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 29.45%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Orenburg
Russian Premier League
09.08.26	Rubin Kazan - Orenburg	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
05.08.26	Spartak Moscow - Orenburg	5:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
02.08.26	Orenburg - Zenit	0:3 ✺
26.07.26	Orenburg - Rostov	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
07.07.26	Dynamo Moscow - Orenburg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TLLWL
- Lokomotiv Moscow
Russian Premier League
08.08.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - Akron Tolyatti	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
04.08.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow	1:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
01.08.26	Dynamo Makhachkala - Lokomotiv Moscow	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - Akhmat Grozny	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - Rubin Kazan	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
18.04.26	Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow	0:1
09.11.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg	1:0
03.05.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg	1:1
Russian Cup
01.10.24	Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg	2:1
Russian Premier League
14.09.24	Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow	2:4
Russian Cup
13.08.24	Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow	2:3
Russian Premier League
12.05.24	Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow	0:2

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