Match Info

Premier League - Round 26

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Gazovik Stadium (Orenburg)

Referee: Frolov A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Football Asia
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 4


	Orenburg		Nizhny Novgorod

	1	X	2
	1.87	3.65	4.7
	1.89	3.72	4.58
	2.08	3.35	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.24)	3.57 ↑ (3.3)	4.23 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orenburg
49.9%

Draw
27.2%

Nizhny Novgorod
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

28.3%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

28.6%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Orenburg's performance.

Nizhny Novgorod has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nizhny Novgorod might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Orenburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nizhny Novgorod than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nizhny Novgorod could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Orenburg - Nizhny Novgorod Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Orenburg will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Nizhny Novgorod will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ovsyannikov B. (G) 18. Moufi F. (C) 6. Palacios J. 26. Tsenov E. 4. Khotulev D. 37. Du Queiroz 57. Bolotov E. 16. Thompson J. 8. Puebla D. 7. Gurluk E. 9. Savelyev M.	30. Medvedev N. (C) 70. Shnaptsev M. 2. Aleksandrov V. 4. Kirsch I. 3. Koledin Y. 29. Ticic L. 77. Ivlev A. 17. Smelov E. 14. Urvantsev M. 10. Balboa A. 21. Cephas R.
Substitutes
19. Alexandre Jesus 32. Cantero A. 29. El Mahraoui A. 27. Golybin R. 22. Gorelov P. 65. Ivashchenko I. 38. Kasimov A. 78. Kul R. 33. Kvekveskiri I. 2. Poroykov S. 88. Rudakov M. (G) 3. Vedernikov D.	23. Castillo J. 19. Ermakov N. 27. Grulev V. 78. Kalinski N. 51. Koshkin E. (G) 16. Krashevskiy Y. 88. Lesovoy D. 1. Lukyanov V. (G) 8. Maiga M. 32. Pigas V. 69. Sidorenko A.
Coaches
Akhmetzyanov I.	Shpilevski A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', Ovsyannikov B. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Balboa A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', Ivlev A. 🟨,
55', Urvantsev M. 🟨,
57', Tsenov E. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
67', Savelyev M. ↓, Alexandre Jesus ↑,
68', Puebla D. ↓, Golybin R. ↑,
69', Balboa A. 🟨,
69', Urvantsev M. ↓, Lesovoy D. ↑,
70', Ivlev A. ↓, Ermakov N. ↑,
70', Balboa A. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Alexandre Jesus ⚽, Thompson J. (A),
82', 2 - 1, Alexandre Jesus ⚽, Thompson J. (A),
84', Cantero A. 🟨,
85', Castillo J. ↓, Grulev V. ↑,
89', Bolotov E. ↓, Kvekveskiri I. ↑,
89', Du Queiroz ↓, Kul R. ↑,
90+2', Ticic L. ↓, Sidorenko A. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 14 in the zone Premier League (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 2.

Orenburg is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Pari NN has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Orenburg could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Orenburg: Guzina G. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Pari NN: Ektov A. (Knee Injury) Karic S. (Yellow Cards) Olusegun O. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Orenburg: Moufi F. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Orenburg won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Orenburg: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Orenburg	10	2	6	2	11:10	1	12

Last Results with these Odds

Orenburg - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.64%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Orenburg
Russian Premier League
18.04.26	Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Rubin Kazan - Orenburg	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Dynamo Moscow - Orenburg	3:3 ✺
22.03.26	Orenburg - Spartak Moscow	0:2 ✺
13.03.26	Dynamo Makhachkala - Orenburg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LTTLL
- FC Nizhny Novgorod
Russian Premier League
18.04.26	Nizhny Novgorod - Dynamo Moscow	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Baltika Kaliningrad - Nizhny Novgorod	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Nizhny Novgorod - Rostov	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Krasnodar - Nizhny Novgorod	5:0 ✺
15.03.26	Nizhny Novgorod - Krylya Sovetov	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
13.09.25	Nizhny Novgorod - Orenburg	3:1
04.04.25	Nizhny Novgorod - Orenburg	1:2
27.09.24	Orenburg - Nizhny Novgorod	1:2
14.04.24	Orenburg - Nizhny Novgorod	3:1
24.09.23	Nizhny Novgorod - Orenburg	3:1
30.04.23	Orenburg - Nizhny Novgorod	1:0
Club Friendly
16.02.23	Orenburg - Nizhny Novgorod	2:1

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