Match Info

LaLiga - Round 13

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Sadar (Pamplona)

Referee: Busquets M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Osasuna		Real Sociedad

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.9	2.9	Watch
	2.68	2.98	2.98	Watch
	2.81	3.1	2.88
	2.55	3.24	2.84	Watch
	2.7	2.98	3.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.59)	3.04 ↓ (3.21)	2.94 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osasuna
35.7%

Draw
31.6%

Real Sociedad
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

29.7%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Real Sociedad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.7%	47.4%	28.9%

Osasuna - Real Sociedad Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Osasuna will win (votes: 8 - 22.2%). Real Sociedad will win (votes: 10 - 27.8%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 33.7% – 66.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Osasuna (votes: 2 - 20%). Real Sociedad (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Real Sociedad (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Osasuna (1.83) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Osasuna (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Real Sociedad (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Tie (votes: 6 - 46.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrera S. (C) 22. Boyomo F. 24. Catena A. 3. Cruz J. 7. Moncayola J. 6. Torro L. 16. Gomez M. 23. Bretones A. 21. Munoz V. 9. Garcia R. 10. Oroz A.	1. Remiro A. (G) 2. Aramburu J. 31. Martin J. 16. Caleta-Car D. 3. Munoz A. 11. Guedes G. 4. Gorrotxategi J. 18. Soler C. 21. Zakharyan A. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C) 23. Mendez B.
Substitutes
41. Arguibide I. 11. Barja K. 18. Becker S. 17. Budimir A. 13. Fernandez A. (G) 14. Garcia R. 5. Herrando J. 8. Munoz I. 29. Osambela A.	7. Barrenetxea A. 38. Beitia L. 6. Elustondo A. 32. Fraga A. (G) 17. Gomez S. 14. Kubo T. 28. Marin P. 13. Marrero U. (G) 20. Odriozola A. 15. Sadiq U. 24. Sucic L. 8. Turrientes B.
Coaches
Lisci A.	Francisco S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', Mendez B. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Catena A. ⚽, Oroz A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
53', 1 - 1, Mendez B. ⚽, Soler C. (A),
54', Martin J. 🟨,
59', 1 - 2, Guedes G. ⚽, Oyarzabal M. (A),
60', Guedes G. ↓, Kubo T. ↑,
60', Zakharyan A. ↓, Barrenetxea A. ↑,
61', Cruz J. ↓, Garcia R. ↑,
71', Moncayola J. ↓, Arguibide I. ↑,
75', Mendez B. ↓, Marin P. ↑,
75', Munoz A. ↓, Gomez S. ↑,
78', Gomez M. ↓, Budimir A. ↑,
78', Munoz V. ↓, Barja K. ↑,
79', Boyomo F. ↓, Herrando J. ↑,
82', 1 - 3, Barrenetxea A. ⚽, Gorrotxategi J. (A),
85', Soler C. ↓, Elustondo A. ↑,
87', Arguibide I. 🟥,
88', Fernandez A. 🟨,
90', Oroz A. 🟨,
90+1', Catena A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 3.

Osasuna has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Real Sociedad is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Real Sociedad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Osasuna has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Osasuna: Benito I. (Knee Injury) Rosier V. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Goti Lopez M. (Injury) Herrera Y. (Calf Injury) Karrikaburu J. (Calf Injury) Oskarsson O. (Hamstring Injury) Ruperez I. (Knee Injury) Zubeldia I. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Osasuna: Budimir A. (Calf Injury) Moncayola J. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:31. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Osasuna won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:14. (average 1.1:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Osasuna - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.75%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Osasuna
Spanish LaLiga
08.11.25	Sevilla - Osasuna	1:0 ✺
03.11.25	Real Oviedo - Osasuna	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Sant Jordi - Osasuna	0:5 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
26.10.25	Osasuna - Celta de Vigo	2:3 ✺
18.10.25	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LTWLL
- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
07.11.25	Elche - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	Negreira - Real Sociedad	0:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
24.10.25	Real Sociedad - Sevilla	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Celta de Vigo - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.07.25	Real Sociedad - Osasuna	4:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.02.25	Real Sociedad - Osasuna	2:0
Spanish LaLiga
02.02.25	Osasuna - Real Sociedad	2:1
27.10.24	Real Sociedad - Osasuna	0:2
Club Friendly
31.07.24	Real Sociedad - Osasuna	1:2
Spanish LaLiga
10.02.24	Real Sociedad - Osasuna	0:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.01.24	Osasuna - Real Sociedad	0:2

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