Match Info

LaLiga - Round 10

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Sadar (Pamplona)

Referee: Hernandez A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Colombia	Disney+
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Osasuna		Celta de Vigo

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.9	Watch
	2.58	3.05	2.98	Watch
	2.42	3.2	3.24
	4.06	1.48	6.95	Watch
	2.67	3.21	3.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.47)	2.81 ↓ (3.33)	3.82 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osasuna
36.2%

Draw
36.8%

Celta de Vigo
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

28.8%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

29.6%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Celta de Vigo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Celta de Vigo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Celta de Vigo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	18.2%	15.2%

Osasuna - Celta de Vigo Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Osasuna will win (votes: 21 - 67.7%). Celta will win (votes: 5 - 16.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Osasuna: 51.2% – 84.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Osasuna (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Celta (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Osasuna (1.40) (votes: 3 - 60%) .

DNB - Celta (2.05) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - Celta (2.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Osasuna (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Celta (votes: 9 - 56.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrera S. (C) 22. Boyomo F. 24. Catena A. 29. Osambela A. 7. Moncayola J. 6. Torro L. 16. Gomez M. 23. Bretones A. 21. Munoz V. 17. Budimir A. 14. Garcia R.	13. Radu I. (G) 12. Fernandez M. 4. Aidoo J. 20. Alonso M. 5. Carreira S. 14. Rodriguez D. 6. Moriba I. 21. Ristic M. 9. Jutgla F. 7. Iglesias B. (C) 15. Zaragoza B.
Substitutes
11. Barja K. 18. Becker S. 2. Benito I. 3. Cruz J. 13. Fernandez A. (G) 9. Garcia R. 5. Herrando J. 8. Munoz I. 31. Stamatakis D. (G)	23. Alvarez H. 10. Aspas I. 8. Beltran F. 11. Cervi F. 24. Dominguez C. 18. Duran P. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 29. Lago Y. 3. Mingueza O. 16. Roman M. 22. Sotelo H. 1. Villar I. (G)
Coaches
Lisci A.	Giraldez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
13', Jutgla F. 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, Jutgla F. ⚽, Iglesias B. (A),
35', Fernandez M. 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Budimir A. (Pen),
45+1', 2 - 1, Budimir A. ⚽, Garcia R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', Rodriguez D. 🟨,
61', Ristic M. ↓, El Abdellaoui J. ↑,
61', Fernandez M. ↓, Mingueza O. ↑,
61', Rodriguez D. ↓, Sotelo H. ↑,
62', Catena A. 🟨,
66', Iglesias B. 🟨,
69', 2 - 2, Jutgla F. ⚽,
72', Garcia R. ↓,
75', Zaragoza B. ↓, Duran P. ↑,
79', Budimir A. (Pen),
81', Iglesias B. ↓, Aspas I. ↑,
82', Osambela A. ↓, Cruz J. ↑,
82', Munoz V. ↓, Barja K. ↑,
87', Bretones A. 🟨,
87', 2 - 3, Duran P. ⚽, Aspas I. (A),
89', Torro L. ↓, Benito I. ↑,
89', Bretones A. ↓, Becker S. ↑,
90', Boyomo F. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 2.

Osasuna is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Celta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Celta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Celta has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Osasuna: Oroz A. (Foot Injury) Rosier V. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Celta: Rueda J. (Thigh Injury) Starfelt C. (Red Card) Swedberg W. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:21. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Osasuna won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 0.9:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Celta de Vigo - the odds 2.96 are the expected chance of winning is 32.36%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Osasuna
Spanish LaLiga
18.10.25	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	1:0 ✺
03.10.25	Osasuna - Getafe	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Betis - Osasuna	2:0 ✺
25.09.25	Osasuna - Elche	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Villarreal - Osasuna	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLTL
- Celta de Vigo
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Celta de Vigo - Nice	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
19.10.25	Celta de Vigo - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Celta de Vigo - PAOK	3:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
28.09.25	Elche - Celta de Vigo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
21.02.25	Celta de Vigo - Osasuna	1:0
01.09.24	Osasuna - Celta de Vigo	3:2
04.02.24	Osasuna - Celta de Vigo	0:3
13.08.23	Celta de Vigo - Osasuna	0:2
06.03.23	Osasuna - Celta de Vigo	0:0
05.11.22	Celta de Vigo - Osasuna	1:2
19.01.22	Celta de Vigo - Osasuna	2:0

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