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Benfica vs Real Madrid Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Tuesday, February 17, 2026)

Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Meraj Sport, Meraj TV
Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, RTL Club, RTL Play, VTM 2, VTM GO
Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, SBT, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport 360, CANAL+ Sport
Georgia	Silk Sport 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	Premier Sports 1 ROI
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	Kazakhstan TV
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Mexico	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Kanal A, Nova Sport 6
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus, VTV Prime


	Benfica		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.7	2.15
	3.6	3.8	1.93
	3.2	3.8	2.18
	3.22	3.85	2.19
	3.26	3.8	2.17	Watch
	3	3.5	2.2
	3.37	3.82	2.19
	3.1	3.66	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↓ (3.67)	3.74 ↓ (4.09)	2.15 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
29.7%

Draw
25.7%

Real Madrid
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

23.5%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

22.9%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.4%	16.8%	75.8%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 92 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 7 - 7.6%). Real will win (votes: 71 - 77.2%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 15.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 68.6% – 85.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 10 - 76.9%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

TQ, OT - Real (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 11 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH +0.5 - Real (2.16) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +0.25 - Real (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Real (1.63) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Real (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Real (1.38) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Real Madrid will win (24 of 28 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 39 high ROI users predict this event. Benfica (votes: 1 - 2.6%). Real (votes: 34 - 87.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 10.3%).

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 25. Prestianni G. 27. Rafa Silva 21. Schjelderup A. 14. Pavlidis V.	1. Courtois T. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 22. Rudiger A. 24. Huijsen D. 18. Carreras A. 8. Valverde F. (C) 15. Guler A. 14. Tchouameni A. 6. Camavinga E. 10. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
6. Bah A. 5. Barrenechea E. 7. Bruma 72. Cabral A. 50. Ferreira D. (G) 9. Ivanovic F. 15. Lopes Cabral S. 11. Lukebakio D. 16. Manu 20. Rios R. 4. Silva A. 10. Sudakov G.	4. Alaba D. 2. Carvajal D. 19. Ceballos D. 28. Cestero Sancho J. 21. Diaz B. 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 13. Lunin A. (G) 36. Martinez J. 30. Mastantuono F. 23. Mendy F. 45. Pitarch T.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Arbeloa A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 0 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Mbappe K. (A),
51', Vinicius Junior 🟨,
74', Rafa Silva ↓, Rios R. ↑,
74', Schjelderup A. ↓, Sudakov G. ↑,
78', Prestianni G. 🟨,
80', Aursnes F. ↓, Lopes Cabral S. ↑,
81', Prestianni G. ↓, Lukebakio D. ↑,
85', Mourinho J. 🟨,
85', Mourinho J. 🟨,
86', Guler A. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
87', Mbappe K. 🟨,
90+2', Sudakov G. 🟨,
90+4', Camavinga E. ↓, Pitarch T. ↑,
90+9', Carreras A. ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Benfica has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Real is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Real could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Soares S. (Injury) Veloso J. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Real: Asencio R. (Red Card) Bellingham J. (Hamstring Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Rodrygo (Red Card)

There are questionable in Benfica: Rios R. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 4.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 4.5:2).

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Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Real Madrid: 10.5%

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 50.32%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
13.02.26	Santa Clara - Benfica	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Benfica - Alverca	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Tondela - Benfica	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	4:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
25.01.26	Benfica - Estrela da Amadora	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WWTWW
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
14.02.26	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:1 ✺
08.02.26	Valencia - Real Madrid	0:2 ✺
01.02.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	4:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
24.01.26	Villarreal - Real Madrid	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	4:2
Club Friendly
27.07.12	Benfica - Real Madrid	5:2

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