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Benfica - Real Madrid: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals
  • Date: 17 February 2026, Tuesday
  • Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)
  • Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Benfica Real Madrid
    Benfica Real Madrid
    1 X 2
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    (Initially)    		 3.23 ↓
    (3.67)    		 3.74 ↓
    (4.09)    		 2.15 ↑
    (1.91)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Benfica
    29.7%    		Draw
    25.7%    		Real Madrid
    44.6%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    26.2% 23.5% 50.3%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    25.5% 22.9% 51.6%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)
  • Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    7.4% 16.8% 75.8%

    Benfica - Real Madrid Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 92 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 7 - 7.6%). Real will win (votes: 71 - 77.2%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 15.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 68.6% – 85.8%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • TQ, OT - Real (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 11 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
    • AH -0.5 - Real (2.16) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DNB - Real (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DC - Real (1.38) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (24 of 28 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 36 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 1 - 2.8%). Real (votes: 31 - 86.1%). Tie (votes: 4 - 11.1%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. UkraineTrubin A. (G)
    17. BosniaDedic A.
    44. PortugalAraujo T.
    30. ArgentinaOtamendi N. (C)
    26. SwedenDahl S.
      8. NorwayAursnes F.
    18. LuxembourgBarreiro L.
    25. ArgentinaPrestianni G.
    27. PortugalRafa Silva
    21. NorwaySchjelderup A.
    14. GreecePavlidis V.
    		  1. BelgiumCourtois T. (G)
    12. EnglandAlexander-Arnold T.
    22. GermanyRudiger A.
    24. SpainHuijsen D.
    18. SpainCarreras A.
      8. UruguayValverde F. (C)
    15. TurkeyGuler A.
    14. FranceTchouameni A.
      6. FranceCamavinga E.
    10. FranceMbappe K.
      7. BrazilVinicius Junior
    Substitutes
      6. DenmarkBah A.
      5. ArgentinaBarrenechea E.
      7. PortugalBruma
    72. PortugalCabral A.
    50. PortugalFerreira D. (G)
      9. CroatiaIvanovic F.
    15. CapeLopes Cabral S.
    11. BelgiumLukebakio D.
    16. PortugalManu
    20. ColombiaRios R.
      4. PortugalSilva A.
    10. UkraineSudakov G.
    		  4. AustriaAlaba D.
      2. SpainCarvajal D.
    19. SpainCeballos D.
    28. SpainCestero Sancho J.
    21. MoroccoDiaz B.
    20. SpainGarcia F.
    16. SpainGarcia G.
    13. UkraineLunin A. (G)
    36. SpainMartinez J.
    30. ArgentinaMastantuono F.
    23. FranceMendy F.
    45. SpainPitarch T.
    Coaches
         PortugalMourinho J.
    		     SpainArbeloa A.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
    • 50', 0 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Mbappe K. (A),
    • 51', Vinicius Junior 🟨,
    • 74', Rafa Silva ↓, Rios R. ↑,
    • 74', Schjelderup A. ↓, Sudakov G. ↑,
    • 78', Prestianni G. 🟨,
    • 80', Aursnes F. ↓, Lopes Cabral S. ↑,
    • 81', Prestianni G. ↓, Lukebakio D. ↑,
    • 85', Mourinho J. 🟨,
    • 85', Mourinho J. 🟨,
    • 86', Guler A. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
    • 87', Mbappe K. 🟨,
    • 90+2', Sudakov G. 🟨,
    • 90+4', Camavinga E. ↓, Pitarch T. ↑,
    • 90+9', Carreras A. ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,

    Preview

  • First leg.
  • Benfica has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
  • Real is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
  • Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Real could have a small edge in this match.
  • There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Soares S. (Injury) Veloso J. (Shoulder Injury)
  • There will not play in Real: Asencio R. (Red Card) Bellingham J. (Hamstring Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Rodrygo (Red Card)
  • There are questionable in Benfica: Rios R. (Injury)
  • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 4.5:2).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 4.5:2).

    • Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now
    Real Madrid: 10.27%

    Standings

    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    14Real Madrid11002:113

    Last Results with these Odds

    Real Madrid - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 50.32%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - SL Benfica
    Liga Portugal
    13.02.26 Santa Clara - Benfica 1:2 ✺
    08.02.26 Benfica - Alverca 2:1 ✺
    01.02.26 Tondela - Benfica 0:0 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    28.01.26 Benfica - Real Madrid 4:2 ✺
    Liga Portugal
    25.01.26 Benfica - Estrela da Amadora 4:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7
    WWTWW
    - Real Madrid
    Spanish LaLiga
    14.02.26 Real Madrid - Real Sociedad 4:1 ✺
    08.02.26 Valencia - Real Madrid 0:2 ✺
    01.02.26 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 2:1 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    28.01.26 Benfica - Real Madrid 4:2 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    24.01.26 Villarreal - Real Madrid 0:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2
    WWWLW
    Latest Head to Head
    UEFA Champions League
    28.01.26 Benfica - Real Madrid 4:2
    Club Friendly
    27.07.12 Benfica - Real Madrid 5:2
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - SL Benfica
    UEFA Europa League
    15.10.26 Benfica - Celtic ✺
    Liga Portugal
    11.10.26 Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães ✺
    - Real Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    14.10.26 Roma - Real Madrid ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Real Madrid - Villarreal ✺

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