Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Oxford United		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	2.75	3	2.75	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.8
	2.67	3.16	2.77	Watch
	2.74	3.19	2.82
	2.72	3.11	2.77	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.75
	2.72	3.02	2.8	Watch
	2.67	3.16	2.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↓ (3.18)	3.11 ↓ (3.45)	2.78 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
35.2%

Draw
30.6%

Cardiff City
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

27.4%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

26.9%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oxford United's performance.

Cardiff City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cardiff City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cardiff City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.8%	48.4%	25.8%

Oxford United - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 7 - 25%). Cardiff will win (votes: 7 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.5% – 68.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 2. Long S. 5. Moore E. 3. Brown C. 22. Leigh G. 7. Placheta P. 4. Vaulks W. 8. Brannagan C. 19. Goodrham T. 20. Rodrigues R. 9. Harris M.	21. Alnwick J. (C) 27. Colwill R. 4. Goutas D. 12. Chambers C. 35. Rinomhota A. 3. Siopis M. 18. Robertson A. 23. Bagan J. 11. O'Dowda C. 19. Meite Y. 16. Willock C.
Substitutes
23. Dembele S. 15. El Mizouni I. 21. Ingram M. (G) 30. Kioso P. 6. McEachran J. 10. Phillips M. 44. Scarlett D. 14. Sibley L. 24. ter Avest H.	45. Ashford C. 5. Daland J. 37. Davies T. 20. El Ghazi A. 2. Fish W. 1. Horvath E. (G) 15. Kanga W. 44. Kpakio R. 47. Robinson C.
Coaches
Rowett G.	Riza O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Harris M. ⚽, Placheta P. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Willock C. ↓, Robinson C. ↑,
52', 2 - 0, Brown C. ⚽, Goodrham T. (A),
57', 3 - 0, Placheta P. ⚽, Brown C. (A),
58', Siopis M. ↓, Kpakio R. ↑,
68', Meite Y. ↓, Ashford C. ↑,
68', O'Dowda C. ↓, El Ghazi A. ↑,
74', Placheta P. ↓, Dembele S. ↑,
74', Rodrigues R. ↓, Phillips M. ↑,
79', Robertson A. 🟨,
82', 3 - 1, Ashford C. ⚽, Kpakio R. (A),
82', Dembele S. 🟨,
87', Goodrham T. ↓, Sibley L. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 2, Robinson C. ⚽,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

Oxford has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cardiff is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Oxford: Bennett J. (Muscle Injury) Thorniley J. (Injury) Woltman M. (Injury)

There will not play in Cardiff: Davies I. (Injury) Etete K. (Leg Injury) Ng P. (Injury) Ramsey A. (Muscle Injury) Reindorf M. (Injury) Tanner O. (Injury) Tsunoda R. (Muscle Injury) Turnbull D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Oxford: Dembele S. (Ankle Injury) Sibley L. (Ankle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League Championship
21.12.24	Leeds United - Oxford United	4:0 ✺
14.12.24	Oxford United - Sheffield Wednesday	1:3 ✺
11.12.24	Queens Park Rangers - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
30.11.24	Oxford United - Millwall	1:1 ✺
26.11.24	Sheffield United - Oxford United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLTL
- Cardiff City
English League Championship
21.12.24	Cardiff City - Sheffield United	0:2 ✺
14.12.24	Stoke City - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
11.12.24	Cardiff City - Preston North End	0:2 ✺
30.11.24	Coventry City - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
27.11.24	Cardiff City - Queens Park Rangers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTLTL

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