Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 37

Date: 9 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Edwards M. (Eng)


	Oxford United		Cheltenham Town

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	4.2
	1.83	3.4	4.2
	1.83	3.5	4.33
	1.92	3.59	4.62
	1.85	3.59	4.62
	1.8	3.6	4.2
	1.86	3.56	4.29	Watch
	1.8	3.45	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.78)	3.51 ↓ (3.7)	4.32 ↑ (4.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
51.2%

Draw
26.9%

Cheltenham Town
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

25.2%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

27.3%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oxford United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	15.4%	15.4%

Oxford United - Cheltenham Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Cheltenham will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oxford: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 15. Stevens F. 5. Moore E. 3. Brown C. 22. Leigh G. 18. McGuane M. 8. Brannagan C. 30. Dale O. 20. Rodrigues R. 23. Murphy J. 9. Harris M.	1. Southwood L. (G) 14. Shepherd J. 33. Davies C. 4. Bradbury T. 2. Long S. 8. Sercombe L. 34. Pett T. 7. Kinsella L. 15. Ferry W. 26. Nuttall J. 10. Keena A.
Substitutes
12. Bennett J. 10. Bodin B. 13. Eastwood S. (G) 25. Goodwin W. 17. Henry J. 36. Matete J. 4. Thorniley J.	23. Bonds E. 25. Harrop J. 21. Pardington J. (G) 32. Sloggett G. 5. Smith A. 27. Thomas J. 3. Williams B.
Coaches
Buckingham D.	Clarke D.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 7 and 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Oxford won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Oxford could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Oxford is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Oxford won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 23-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Oxford won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League One
02.03.24	Portsmouth - Oxford United	2:1 ✺
24.02.24	Oxford United - Leyton Orient	1:2 ✺
20.02.24	Oxford United - Northampton Town	2:2 ✺
17.02.24	Wycombe Wanderers - Oxford United	0:0 ✺
13.02.24	Oxford United - Wigan Athletic	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLTTW
- Cheltenham Town
English League One
05.03.24	Cheltenham Town - Charlton Athletic	1:3 ✺
02.03.24	Cheltenham Town - Burton Albion	0:0 ✺
27.02.24	Wycombe Wanderers - Cheltenham Town	2:0 ✺
23.02.24	Wigan Athletic - Cheltenham Town	1:1 ✺
17.02.24	Cheltenham Town - Port Vale	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
25.11.23	Cheltenham Town - Oxford United	2:0
25.04.23	Oxford United - Cheltenham Town	4:0
27.08.22	Cheltenham Town - Oxford United	1:2
01.01.22	Oxford United - Cheltenham Town	1:1
18.09.21	Cheltenham Town - Oxford United	1:0
English EFL Trophy
08.01.19	Cheltenham Town - Oxford United	1:2 penalties
English League Cup
08.08.17	Oxford United - Cheltenham Town	3:4 ET

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