Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 29

Date: 20 February 2024, Tuesday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)


	Oxford United		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.8	4.2
	1.78	3.7	4.2
	1.78	3.75	4.33
	1.82	3.55	4.2
	1.8	3.89	4.48
	1.75	3.6	4.2
	1.8	3.8	4.29	Watch
	1.74	3.7	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.71)	3.72 ↓ (3.84)	4.25 ↓ (4.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
52.7%

Draw
25.2%

Northampton Town
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

24.6%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

26.3%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oxford United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.7%	1.8%	10.5%

Oxford United - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Oxford United will win (50 of 57 users predict this - 87.72%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.2% – 96.24%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 2. Long S. 28. Negru S. 3. Brown C. 12. Bennett J. 8. Brannagan C. 10. Bodin B. 23. Murphy J. 20. Rodrigues R. 22. Leigh G. 9. Harris M.	31. Moulden L. (G) 15. Willis J. 6. Sherring S. 5. Guthrie J. (C) 33. Brough P. 21. Leonard M. 8. Fox B. 23. Hondermarck W. 19. Bowie K. 16. Simpson T. 11. Pinnock M.
Substitutes
30. Dale O. 13. Eastwood S. (G) 19. Goodrham T. 25. Goodwin W. 36. Matete J. 6. McEachran J. 4. Thorniley J.	9. Appere L. 36. Dadge J. (G) 29. Gape D. 7. Hoskins S. 17. McWilliams S. 26. Moore L. 28. Springett T.
Coaches
Buckingham D.	Brady J.

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Oxford won 2.

Recent matches Oxford is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Northampton is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Northampton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Oxford have a series of guest games.

In this match Oxford is a favorite.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Oxford won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 19-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Oxford won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League One
17.02.24	Wycombe Wanderers - Oxford United	0:0 ✺
13.02.24	Oxford United - Wigan Athletic	4:2 ✺
10.02.24	Blackpool - Oxford United	1:1 ✺
03.02.24	Oxford United - Reading	1:1 ✺
30.01.24	Oxford United - Portsmouth	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWTTT
- Northampton Town
English League One
17.02.24	Northampton Town - Bristol Rovers	3:1 ✺
13.02.24	Leyton Orient - Northampton Town	4:3 ✺
10.02.24	Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
03.02.24	Portsmouth - Northampton Town	4:1 ✺
27.01.24	Northampton Town - Shrewsbury Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
23.12.23	Northampton Town - Oxford United	2:1
English EFL Trophy
05.09.23	Northampton Town - Oxford United	1:3
English League One
23.03.21	Northampton Town - Oxford United	1:0
15.12.20	Oxford United - Northampton Town	4:0
English EFL Trophy
09.10.18	Oxford United - Northampton Town	1:2
English League One
24.02.18	Northampton Town - Oxford United	0:0
11.11.17	Oxford United - Northampton Town	1:2

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