Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: Philips Stadion (Eindhoven)

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	PSV Eindhoven		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.6	1.85
	3.9	3.4	1.95
	4.35	3.55	1.9	Watch
	4.5	3.57	1.9
	4.59	3.56	1.88	Watch
	4.2	3.4	1.91
	4.41	3.61	1.94
	4.35	3.55	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.3 ↑ (3.75)	3.53 ↓ (3.69)	1.9 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

PSV Eindhoven
22.3%

Draw
27.2%

Arsenal
50.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

26%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

26.6%

49.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

PSV Eindhoven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.9%	21%	69.1%

PSV Eindhoven - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 81 users predict this event. PSV will win (votes: 8 - 9.9%). Arsenal will win (votes: 56 - 69.1%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 21%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 59% – 79.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Benitez W. (G) 37. Ledezma R. 6. Flamingo R. 18. Boscagli O. 3. Malacia T. 34. Saibari I. 22. Schouten J. 20. Til G. 5. Perisic I. 9. de Jong L. (C) 10. Lang N.	22. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 2. Saliba W. 6. Gabriel 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 5. Partey T. 41. Rice D. 53. Nwaneri E. 23. Merino M. 19. Trossard L.
Substitutes
26. Babadi I. 11. Bakayoko J. 21. Driouech C. 16. Drommel J. (G) 2. Karsdorp R. 28. Land T. 39. Nagalo A. 4. Obispo A. 24. Schiks N. (G) 23. Veerman J.	37. Butler-Oyedeji N. 33. Calafiori R. 20. Jorginho 46. Kabia I. 15. Kiwior J. 32. Neto (G) 36. Setford T. (G) 30. Sterling R. 3. Tierney K. 4. White B. 17. Zinchenko O.
Coaches
Bosz P.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
18', 0 - 1, Timber J. ⚽, Rice D. (A),
21', 0 - 2, Nwaneri E. ⚽, Lewis-Skelly M. (A),
24', Lewis-Skelly M. 🟨,
31', 0 - 3, Merino M. ⚽,
35', Lewis-Skelly M. ↓, Calafiori R. ↑,
42', Partey T. 🟨,
43', 1 - 3, Lang N. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Flamingo R. ↓, Nagalo A. ↑,
47', 1 - 4, Odegaard M. ⚽,
48', 1 - 5, Trossard L. ⚽, Calafiori R. (A),
65', de Jong L. ↓, Bakayoko J. ↑,
65', Ledezma R. ↓, Karsdorp R. ↑,
69', Timber J. 🟨,
71', Nwaneri E. ↓, Sterling R. ↑,
71', Partey T. ↓, Zinchenko O. ↑,
73', 1 - 6, Odegaard M. ⚽, Merino M. (A),
77', Merino M. ↓, Tierney K. ↑,
77', Timber J. ↓, White B. ↑,
82', Boscagli O. ↓, Obispo A. ↑,
83', Saibari I. ↓, Veerman J. ↑,
85', 1 - 7, Calafiori R. ⚽, Odegaard M. (A),
89', Malacia T. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

PSV is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Arsenal is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arsenal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Arsenal will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in PSV: Bajraktarevic E. (Injury) Dest S. (Knee Injury) Fofana F. (Knee Injury) Pepi R. (Knee Injury) Tillman M. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Hamstring Injury) Martinelli G. (Thigh Injury) Saka B. (Thigh Injury) Tomiyasu T. (Knee Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches PSV won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:6 (average 0.8:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams PSV won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PSV Eindhoven
Dutch Eredivisie
01.03.25	Go Ahead Eagles - PSV Eindhoven	3:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
26.02.25	PSV Eindhoven - Go Ahead Eagles	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.02.25	PSV Eindhoven - Juventus	3:1 ET ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
15.02.25	PSV Eindhoven - Utrecht	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.02.25	Juventus - PSV Eindhoven	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWTL
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
26.02.25	Nottingham Forest - Arsenal	0:0 ✺
22.02.25	Arsenal - West Ham United	0:1 ✺
15.02.25	Leicester City - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
05.02.25	Newcastle United - Arsenal	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
02.02.25	Arsenal - Manchester City	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
12.12.23	PSV Eindhoven - Arsenal	1:1
20.09.23	Arsenal - PSV Eindhoven	4:0
UEFA Europa League
27.10.22	PSV Eindhoven - Arsenal	2:0
20.10.22	Arsenal - PSV Eindhoven	1:0

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