Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Canal+, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
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Australia	Stan Sport
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Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
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Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN
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Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 5, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium, V Sport Ultra
France	CANAL+ Foot, CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Premier League
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Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
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Indonesia	Vidio
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Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	Hub Premier 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Suriname	SCCN
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Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD 2, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fubo Sports Network, NBC Sports App, NBC, SiriusXM FC, Telemundo, USA Network
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+ Sport 1
World	Sport 24 At Sea


	Newcastle United		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	2.15
	3.3	3.3	2.28
	3.6	3.35	2.24
	3.65	3.22	2.09	Watch
	3.73	3.4	2.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (3.2)	3.31 ↓ (3.65)	2.18 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
27.1%

Draw
28.9%

Arsenal
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

26.2%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

26.5%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

The chances for Arsenal have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.3%	12.8%	70.9%

Newcastle United - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 86 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 14 - 16.3%). Arsenal will win (votes: 61 - 70.9%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 12.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 61.3% – 80.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 5 - 16.7%). Arsenal (votes: 20 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Newcastle (3.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 60%) .

O/U 0.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Newcastle (1.68) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 7 - 21.2%). Arsenal (votes: 21 - 63.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 15.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pope N. (G) 21. Livramento V. 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 23. Murphy J. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.	1. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 3. Mosquera C. 6. Gabriel 33. Calafiori R. 10. Eze E. 36. Zubimendi M. 41. Rice D. 7. Saka B. (C) 14. Gyökeres V. 19. Trossard L.
Substitutes
11. Barnes H. 20. Elanga A. 17. Krafth E. 6. Lascelles J. 67. Miley L. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 2. Trippier K. 28. Willock J.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 56. Dowman M. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 11. Martinelli G. 23. Merino M. 16. Norgaard C. 8. Odegaard M. 2. Saliba W. 4. White B.
Coaches
Howe E.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Woltemade N. ⚽, Tonali S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Mosquera C. ↓, Saliba W. ↑,
56', Calafiori R. 🟨,
66', Murphy J. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
67', Gordon A. ↓, Trippier K. ↑,
67', Woltemade N. ↓, Osula W. ↑,
70', Saka B. ↓, Martinelli G. ↑,
70', Calafiori R. ↓, Merino M. ↑,
77', Livramento V. ↓, Lascelles J. ↑,
82', Zubimendi M. ↓, Odegaard M. ↑,
83', Joelinton 🟨,
84', 1 - 1, Merino M. ⚽, Rice D. (A),
88', Trossard L. ↓, Lewis-Skelly M. ↑,
88', Burn D. 🟨,
90+4', Joelinton ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 2, Gabriel ⚽, Odegaard M. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3.

Newcastle has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arsenal is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Arsenal might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Newcastle: Ramsey J. (Ankle Injury) Schar F. (Head Injury) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Knee Injury) Hincapie P. (Muscle Injury) Madueke N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Odegaard M. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 13 matches, and goals 14:30. (average 0.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 43.99%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English League Cup
24.09.25	Newcastle United - Bradford City	4:1 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.25	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Newcastle United - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTLWT
- Arsenal FC
English League Cup
24.09.25	Port Vale - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.25	Arsenal - Manchester City	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Arsenal - Nottingham Forest	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Liverpool - Arsenal	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
27.07.25	Arsenal - Newcastle United	3:2
English Premier League
18.05.25	Arsenal - Newcastle United	1:0
English League Cup
05.02.25	Newcastle United - Arsenal	2:0
07.01.25	Arsenal - Newcastle United	0:2
English Premier League
02.11.24	Newcastle United - Arsenal	1:0
24.02.24	Arsenal - Newcastle United	4:1
04.11.23	Newcastle United - Arsenal	1:0

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