Match Info

Date: 20 March 2022, Sunday


	Paços de Ferreira		Moreirense

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.2
	2.28	3.15	3.25	Watch
	2.25	3.05	3.35
	2.35	3.14	3.53
	2.3	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.29	3.26	3.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.21)	3.16 ↓ (3.3)	3.28 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
41.4%

Draw
29.9%

Moreirense
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

28.3%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

21.1%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+15.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paços de Ferreira, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Moreirense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Paços de Ferreira - Moreirense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 10 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Paços de Ferreira has the most likely position - 10 (14.98%), has project points - 39, has currently - 30, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Moreirense has the most likely position - 17 (25.1%), has project points - 30, has currently - 20, has a chance of relegated (44%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 44, importance 32, match rating 38. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 3.

Recent matches Paços de Ferreira is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Moreirense has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Paços de Ferreira could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Paços de Ferreira will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 21 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 8 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 25-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Paços de Ferreira won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Liga Portugal
12.03.22	Arouca - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
06.03.22	Paços de Ferreira - Porto	2:4 ✺
25.02.22	BSAD - Paços de Ferreira	0:2 ✺
19.02.22	Paços de Ferreira - Vizela	2:1 ✺
12.02.22	Braga - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLWWL
- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
14.03.22	Moreirense - Sporting Lisbon	0:2 ✺
06.03.22	Moreirense - Marítimo	0:1 ✺
26.02.22	Arouca - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
20.02.22	Moreirense - Porto	0:1 ✺
13.02.22	Famalicão - Moreirense	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
01.11.21	Moreirense - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
20.03.21	Paços de Ferreira - Moreirense	3:0
01.12.20	Moreirense - Paços de Ferreira	0:1
15.07.20	Moreirense - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
05.01.20	Paços de Ferreira - Moreirense	1:0
Club Friendly
27.07.19	Moreirense - Paços de Ferreira	1:0
19.07.18	Paços de Ferreira - Moreirense	4:0

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