Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Miguel Hidalgo (Pachuca de Soto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Pachuca		Atlético San Luis

	1	X	2
	1.66	4.1	4.2	Watch
	1.62	4.15	4.7
	1.75	4.18	4.48
	1.67	4.4	4.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.43)	4.21 ↓ (4.78)	4.47 ↓ (6.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pachuca
56.4%

Draw
22.5%

Atlético San Luis
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.1%

19.5%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.3%

18.9%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pachuca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pachuca's form might have worsened.

Atlético San Luis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético San Luis's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pachuca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético San Luis than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético San Luis, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Pachuca - Atlético San Luis Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Atlético San Luis (4.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético San Luis (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Moreno C. (C) 12. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 2. Barreto S. D. 4. Eduardo Bauermann 3. Aceves A. 26. Bautista A. 5. Pedraza P. 29. Kenedy 23. Quinones L. 11. Idrissi O. 10. Valencia E.	1. Sanchez A. (G) 2. Torres R. 3. Robson Bambu 31. Aguila E. 14. Garcia M. 26. Perez S. 21. Macias O. 8. Sanabria J. (C) 19. Salles-Lamonge S. 7. Galdames B. 9. Joao Pedro Galvao
Substitutes
197. Achinulo P. 13. Berlanga J. 99. Cadiz J. 185. Contreras A. 31. Eulogio J. (G) 8. Guzman V. 9. Hernandez I. 15. Luna I. 14. Sanchez C. 32. Togni G.	25. Barajas F. 18. Cruz A. 4. Dominguez J. 15. Guillen D. 197. Joao Louranco 10. Klimowicz M. 34. Lajud G. (G) 16. Marchand J. 13. Rodrigo Dourado 22. Yan Phillipe
Coaches
Lozano J.	Abascal G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', Idrissi O. 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Perez S. ⚽, Garcia M. (A),
31', Pedraza P. 🟨,
33', Sanchez A. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Valencia E. (Pen),
40', 2 - 1, Sanabria J. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Idrissi O. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
46', Pedraza P. ↓, Luna I. ↑,
46', Garcia M. ↓, Yan Phillipe ↑,
60', Salles-Lamonge S. ↓, Rodrigo Dourado ↑,
60', Galdames B. ↓, Cruz A. ↑,
73', Joao Pedro Galvao 🟨,
74', Valencia E. ↓, Hernandez I. ↑,
76', 🟨,
78', Perez S. ↓, Joao Louranco ↑,
80', Kenedy ↓, Togni G. ↑,
86', Torres R. ↓, Klimowicz M. ↑,
87', Quinones L. ↓, Berlanga J. ↑,
88', Berlanga J. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 2.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Atlético San Luis may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Pachuca is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Pachuca: Dominguez A. (International duty) Micolta A. (Knee Injury) Montiel E. (International duty)

There will not play in Atlético San Luis: Lopez De Alba C. I. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Pachuca: Carvalho W. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético San Luis: Juanpe (Muscle Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 28:21. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Pachuca won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX
23.09.25	Puebla - Pachuca	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Pachuca - Querétaro	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Pachuca - Cruz Azul	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Club América - Pachuca	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Club León - Pachuca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLLT
- Atlético San Luis
Mexican Liga MX
24.09.25	Atlético San Luis - Club América	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Santos Laguna - Atlético San Luis	1:4 ✺
14.09.25	Atlético San Luis - Tijuana	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	1:3 ✺
22.08.25	Querétaro - Atlético San Luis	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
20.04.25	Atlético San Luis - Pachuca	2:1
16.07.24	Pachuca - Atlético San Luis	2:0
17.03.24	Atlético San Luis - Pachuca	2:1
28.08.23	Pachuca - Atlético San Luis	0:2
22.04.23	Pachuca - Atlético San Luis	2:1
18.09.22	Atlético San Luis - Pachuca	1:2
14.05.22	Pachuca - Atlético San Luis	3:2

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