Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

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	Paderborn		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	4.1	4.5	1.7	Watch
	4.00	4.33	1.75
	4.25	4.15	1.7	Watch
	4.4	4.55	1.74
	3.99	4.33	1.77	Watch
	4.15	4.45	1.69
	4.36	4.57	1.76	Watch
	4.2	4.4	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.18 ↓ (4.54)	4.41 ↑ (4.34)	1.73 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paderborn
22.9%

Draw
21.7%

Hoffenheim
55.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

21.9%

57.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paderborn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Hoffenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.4%	18.5%	74.1%

Paderborn - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 2 - 7.4%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 18.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
15. Noll N. (G) 21. ter Horst J. 25. Scheller T. 22. Hansen M. 17. Curda L. (C) 28. Ulrich L. 5. Castaneda S. 40. Vidovic G. 23. Obermair R. 18. Pieringer M. 30. Marino S.	1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 5. Kabak O. 28. Machida K. 39. Rots M. 20. Conte B. 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 14. Daghim A. 10. Hlozek A. 9. Moerstedt M.
Substitutes
6. Baack T. 20. Gotze F. 11. Michel S. 2. Muller R. 9. Philippe R. 1. Schubert M. (G) 3. Sticker J. 27. Tigges S. 38. Zeitler D.	11. Asllani F. 17. De Cat N. 15. Gendrey V. 21. Hajdari A. 2. Hranac R. 27. Kramaric A. 19. Lemperle T. 37. Philipp L. (G) 8. Wimmer P.
Coaches
Kettemann R.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Castaneda S. ⚽,
42', 2 - 0, Marino S. ⚽, Curda L. (A),
45', Burger W. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rots M. ↓, Hajdari A. ↑,
46', Pieringer M. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
50', 2 - 1, Daghim A. ⚽, Moerstedt M. (A),
62', Moerstedt M. ↓, Lemperle T. ↑,
62', Hlozek A. ↓, Wimmer P. ↑,
63', Obermair R. ↓, Sticker J. ↑,
69', 3 - 1, Tigges S. ⚽, Sticker J. (A),
73', Vidovic G. ↓, Baack T. ↑,
73', Marino S. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
75', Hansen M. ↓, Gotze F. ↑,
80', Daghim A. ↓, Kramaric A. ↑,
80', Avdullahu L. ↓, Asllani F. ↑,

Preview

Hoffenheim has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Hoffenheim may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Hoffenheim is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Paderborn: Awortwie-Grant N. (Knee Injury) Eickel L. (Back Injury) Gayret T. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Paderborn: Michel S. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Paderborn has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:5 (averaging 0.3:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Paderborn against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals (averaging 0.5:0.5 per game).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Hoffenheim: 0.44% Paderborn: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	3:5	-2	4
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7:10	-3	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Paderborn 07
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Paderborn	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Paderborn - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Mainz - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Phönix Lübeck - Paderborn	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Paderborn - Fagiano Okayama	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLTWW
- TSG Hoffenheim
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	OFI - Hoffenheim	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Hoffenheim - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	2:3 ✺
29.08.26	Köln - Hoffenheim	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Hoffenheim	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
23.05.20	Paderborn - Hoffenheim	1:1
01.11.19	Hoffenheim - Paderborn	3:0
21.03.15	Paderborn - Hoffenheim	0:0
25.10.14	Hoffenheim - Paderborn	1:0

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