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Paderborn - Hoffenheim

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 4
  • Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished
  • Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn) 🌤️ ...
  • Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Paderborn Hoffenheim
    Paderborn Hoffenheim
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.18 ↓
    (4.54)    		 4.41 ↑
    (4.34)    		 1.73 ↑
    (1.66)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

    • The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Paderborn
    22.9%    		Draw
    21.7%    		Hoffenheim
    55.4%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    20.9% 21.9% 57.2%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Paderborn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
  • Hoffenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    7.4% 18.5% 74.1%

    Paderborn - Hoffenheim Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 2 - 7.4%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 18.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 57.6% – 90.6%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 3.5 - over (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    15. GermanyNoll N. (G)
    21. Germanyter Horst J.
    25. GermanyScheller T.
    22. GermanyHansen M.
    17. GermanyCurda L. (C)
    28. GermanyUlrich L.
      5. USACastaneda S.
    40. CroatiaVidovic G.
    23. PhilippinesObermair R.
    18. GermanyPieringer M.
    30. GermanyMarino S.
    		  1. GermanyBaumann O. (C)
    34. CzechCoufal V.
      5. TurkeyKabak O.
    28. JapanMachida K.
    39. NetherlandsRots M.
    20. GermanyConte B.
      7. KosovoAvdullahu L.
    18. NetherlandsBurger W.
    14. DenmarkDaghim A.
    10. CzechHlozek A.
      9. GermanyMoerstedt M.
    Substitutes
      6. GermanyBaack T.
    20. GermanyGotze F.
    11. GermanyMichel S.
      2. GermanyMuller R.
      9. FrancePhilippe R.
      1. GermanySchubert M. (G)
      3. GermanySticker J.
    27. GermanyTigges S.
    38. GermanyZeitler D.
    		11. KosovoAsllani F.
    17. BelgiumDe Cat N.
    15. FranceGendrey V.
    21. KosovoHajdari A.
      2. CzechHranac R.
    27. CroatiaKramaric A.
    19. GermanyLemperle T.
    37. GermanyPhilipp L. (G)
      8. AustriaWimmer P.
    Coaches
         GermanyKettemann R.
    		     AustriaIlzer C.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (2 - 0)
    • 29', 1 - 0, Castaneda S. ⚽,
    • 42', 2 - 0, Marino S. ⚽, Curda L. (A),
    • 45', Burger W. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
    • 46', Rots M. ↓, Hajdari A. ↑,
    • 46', Pieringer M. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
    • 50', 2 - 1, Daghim A. ⚽, Moerstedt M. (A),
    • 62', Moerstedt M. ↓, Lemperle T. ↑,
    • 62', Hlozek A. ↓, Wimmer P. ↑,
    • 63', Obermair R. ↓, Sticker J. ↑,
    • 69', 3 - 1, Tigges S. ⚽, Sticker J. (A),
    • 73', Vidovic G. ↓, Baack T. ↑,
    • 73', Marino S. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
    • 75', Hansen M. ↓, Gotze F. ↑,
    • 80', Daghim A. ↓, Kramaric A. ↑,
    • 80', Avdullahu L. ↓, Asllani F. ↑,

    Preview

  • Hoffenheim has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
  • Hoffenheim may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
  • In this matchup, Hoffenheim is considered the favorite to take the win.
  • Confirmed absences for Paderborn: Awortwie-Grant N. (Knee Injury) Eickel L. (Back Injury) Gayret T. (Knee Injury).
  • Doubtful / questionable for Paderborn: Michel S. (Muscle Injury).
  • In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Paderborn has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:5 (averaging 0.3:1.3 goals per game).
  • Specifically in home fixtures for Paderborn against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals (averaging 0.5:0.5 per game).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    10Hoffenheim730414:1409
    13Paderborn72236:9-38

    Outrights of German Bundesliga for now
    Hoffenheim: 0.24% Paderborn: 0.12%
    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - SC Paderborn 07
    German Bundesliga
    12.09.26 Borussia Dortmund - Paderborn 3:0 ✺
    05.09.26 Paderborn - Freiburg 0:1 ✺
    29.08.26 Mainz - Paderborn 0:0 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    23.08.26 Phönix Lübeck - Paderborn 2:4 ✺
    Club Friendly
    17.07.26 Paderborn - Fagiano Okayama 3:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7
    LLTWW
    - TSG Hoffenheim
    UEFA Europa League
    17.09.26 OFI - Hoffenheim 2:0 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    12.09.26 Hoffenheim - Stuttgart 2:1 ✺
    05.09.26 Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund 2:3 ✺
    29.08.26 Köln - Hoffenheim 3:2 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    22.08.26 Erzgebirge Aue - Hoffenheim 0:4 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7
    LWLLW
    Latest Head to Head
    German Bundesliga
    23.05.20 Paderborn - Hoffenheim 1:1
    01.11.19 Hoffenheim - Paderborn 3:0
    21.03.15 Paderborn - Hoffenheim 0:0
    25.10.14 Hoffenheim - Paderborn 1:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - SC Paderborn 07
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Paderborn ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    28.10.26 Paderborn - Stuttgart ✺
    - TSG Hoffenheim
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    28.10.26 Holstein Kiel - Hoffenheim ✺

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