Match Info

Serie B - Round 15

Date: 8 December 2025, Monday

Location: Stadio Euganeo (Padova)

Referee: Zanotti A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Padova		Cesena

	1	X	2
	3.4	2.82	2.32	Watch
	3.2	2.92	2.35	Watch
	4.07	3.01	2.19
	3.4	2.84	2.39	Watch
	3.75	2.8	2.15
	3.3	2.88	2.4	Watch
	3.5	2.8	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↑ (3.2)	2.87 ↓ (3.02)	2.31 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Padova
26.7%

Draw
32.7%

Cesena
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

30.9%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

29.9%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Cesena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cesena than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	21.4%	50%

Padova - Cesena Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Cesena will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cesena: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Cesena (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cesena (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Sorrentino A. (G) 18. Ghiglione P. 72. Faedo C. 32. Sgarbi F. 55. Villa L. 3. Barreca A. 8. Fusi P. 6. Crisetig L. (C) 44. Harder J. 20. Bortolussi M. 92. Buonaiuto C.	33. Klinsmann J. (G) 15. Ciofi A. (C) 19. Zaro G. 24. Mangraviti M. 11. Ciervo R. 32. Olivieri M. 4. Castagnetti M. 70. Francesconi M. 99. Frabotta G. 10. Bastoni S. 9. Shpendi C.
Substitutes
33. Baselli D. 4. Belli F. 17. Capelli A. 30. Favale G. 14. Fortin M. (G) 1. Mouquet L. (G) 10. Papu Gomez 11. Seghetti A. 77. Tumiatti F. 7. Varas K.	17. Adamo E. 16. Amoran P. 6. Arrigoni T. 29. Balde S. 14. Berti T. 25. Bisoli D. 7. Blesa J. 13. Celia R. 18. Guidi M. 23. Magni V. 26. Piacentini M. 1. Siano A. (G)
Coaches
Andreoletti M.	Mignani M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Mangraviti M. 🟨,
36', Harder J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Harder J. ↓, Capelli A. ↑,
51', Castagnetti M. 🟨,
57', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Papu Gomez ↑,
57', Olivieri M. ↓, Blesa J. ↑,
57', Bastoni S. ↓, Berti T. ↑,
65', Barreca A. 🟨,
72', Frabotta G. ↓, Adamo E. ↑,
75', 0 - 1, Adamo E. ⚽, Berti T. (A),
77', Ghiglione P. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
77', Barreca A. ↓, Seghetti A. ↑,
84', Villa L. ↓, Varas K. ↑,
88', Fusi P. 🟨,
89', Francesconi M. 🟨,
90+1', Francesconi M. ↓, Bisoli D. ↑,
90+1', Shpendi C. ↓, Celia R. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Crisetig L. ⚽, Papu Gomez (A),
90+5', Adamo E. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Cesena might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Di Maggio L. (Injury) Lasagna K. (Muscle Injury) Pastina C. (Inactive) Perrotta M. (Yellow Cards) Silva J. (Health problems) Varas K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Cesena: Bisoli D. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Padova won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
29.11.25	Pescara - Padova	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Padova - Venezia	0:2 ✺
08.11.25	Mantova - Padova	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Padova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
29.10.25	Spezia - Padova	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLTT
- AC Cesena
Italian Serie B
28.11.25	Cesena - Modena	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Monza - Cesena	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Cesena - Avellino	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Bari - Cesena	1:0 ✺
28.10.25	Cesena - Carrarese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
04.08.24	Cesena - Padova	3:1
Italian Serie C Group B
28.02.21	Padova - Cesena	0:0
02.11.20	Cesena - Padova	0:2
09.02.20	Cesena - Padova	1:1
25.09.19	Padova - Cesena	1:0
Italian Serie B
09.05.14	Padova - Cesena	0:1
06.12.13	Cesena - Padova	0:1

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