Match Info

Serie B - Round 17

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Euganeo (Padova)

Referee: Ayroldi G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Padova		Sampdoria

	1	X	2
	2.95	2.95	2.5	Watch
	2.98	2.98	2.42	Watch
	2.88	3.07	2.77
	2.89	3.12	2.52	Watch
	3	2.8	2.5
	3.18	3.02	2.46	Watch
	3.1	2.85	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.86)	2.97 ↓ (3)	2.53 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Padova
31.3%

Draw
31.6%

Sampdoria
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

31.1%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

30.7%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Sampdoria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sampdoria than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	50%	28.6%

Padova - Sampdoria Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Sampdoria will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Padova (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Sampdoria (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Padova (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Padova (votes: 2 - 50%). Sampdoria (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Sorrentino A. (G) 72. Faedo C. 32. Sgarbi F. 5. Perrotta M. 17. Capelli A. 8. Fusi P. 6. Crisetig L. (C) 7. Varas K. 3. Barreca A. 20. Bortolussi M. 10. Papu Gomez	1. Ghidotti S. (G) 17. Hadzikadunic D. 28. Abildgaard O. 18. Venuti L. 23. Depaoli F. (C) 33. Conti F. 16. Henderson L. 72. Barak A. 44. Ioannou N. 20. Pafundi S. 9. Coda M.
Substitutes
33. Baselli D. 4. Belli F. 13. Boi A. 92. Buonaiuto C. 23. Di Maggio L. 14. Fortin M. (G) 18. Ghiglione P. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 11. Seghetti A. 41. Silva J. 55. Villa L.	80. Benedetti L. 10. Cherubini L. 98. Coucke G. (G) 7. Cuni M. 25. Ferrari A. 21. Giordano S. 22. Krastev A. (G) 70. Narro V. 11. Pedrola E. 30. Ravaglia N. (G) 8. Ricci M. 31. Vulikic S.
Coaches
Andreoletti M.	Gregucci A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Coda M. ⚽, Depaoli F. (A),
24', Henderson L. 🟨,
30', Conti F. 🟨,
35', Fusi P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Conti F. ↓, Benedetti L. ↑,
46', Pafundi S. ↓, Cherubini L. ↑,
57', Crisetig L. ↓, Seghetti A. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Fusi P. ⚽, Bortolussi M. (A),
66', Venuti L. ↓, Ferrari A. ↑,
67', Papu Gomez 🟨,
72', Coda M. ↓, Cuni M. ↑,
74', Bortolussi M. ↓, Baselli D. ↑,
74', Barreca A. ↓, Ghiglione P. ↑,
79', Papu Gomez ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
79', Fusi P. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
80', Barak A. ↓, Pedrola E. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Sampdoria may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Harder J. (Yellow Cards) Lasagna K. (Muscle Injury) Pastina C. (Inactive) Silva J. (Health problems)

There will not play in Sampdoria: Altare G. (Knee Injury) Bellemo A. (Muscle Injury) Cuni M. (Injury) Girelli S. (Inactive) Romagnoli S. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Padova: Papu Gomez (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Padova won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Sampdoria - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.44%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
13.12.25	Reggiana - Padova	1:2 ✺
08.12.25	Padova - Cesena	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Pescara - Padova	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Padova - Venezia	0:2 ✺
08.11.25	Mantova - Padova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTWLL
- Sampdoria
Italian Serie B
12.12.25	Palermo - Sampdoria	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Sampdoria - Carrarese	3:2 ✺
30.11.25	Spezia - Sampdoria	1:0 ✺
24.11.25	Sampdoria - Juve Stabia	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Venezia - Sampdoria	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
25.07.18	Sampdoria - Padova	1:0

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