Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Kadrioru Staadion (Tallinn)

Referee: Hyytia J. (Fin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	SportExpressen Play


	Paide LM		AIK

	1	X	2
	13	5.25	1.2	Watch
	11.5	5.75	1.22
	19	5.5	1.18	Watch
	12	6.23	1.19
	28.01	10.70	1.06	Watch
	8	5	1.25
	11.6	6.08	1.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	14.73 ↑ (11)	6.36 ↑ (6)	1.19 ↑ (1.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide LM
6.4%

Draw
14.8%

AIK
78.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

8.2%

15%

76.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

AIK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.8%	5.9%	82.4%

Paide LM - AIK Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Paide will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). AIK will win (votes: 14 - 82.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AIK: 64.3% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Paide (votes: 4 - 40%). AIK (votes: 4 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1 - Paide (2.90) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Paide (7.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - AIK (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - AIK (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - AIK (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Paide (votes: 6 - 37.5%). AIK (votes: 8 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Jarju E. (G) 25. Gueye M. 27. Baranov N. 23. Delevic M. 3. Victor Hugo 29. Saliste J. 10. Miller M. 8. Ojamaa H. (C) 6. Gilmore L. 77. Luts D. 7. Corr P.	15. Nordfeldt K. (G) 17. Thychosen M. 32. Benkovic F. 4. Papagiannopoulos S. 16. Tiedemann B. 33. Csongvai A. 8. Hove J. 7. Saletros A. (C) 19. Besirovic D. 11. Guidetti J. 10. Celina B.
Substitutes
9. Anier H. 17. Cham P. A. 28. Hoim O. 70. Isakar R. (G) 2. Lilander M. 19. Luts S. 12. Meerits M. (G) 15. Ojamaa H. 11. Reinkort S. 22. Soo S. 20. Suso M.	18. Ali A. 45. Ayari T. 20. Flataker E. 46. Geiger Y. 3. Isherwood T. 30. Joelsson K. (G) 5. Karlsson K. 12. Pavey C. 21. Wilson S.
Coaches
Vassiljev V.	Thomassen M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Celina B. ⚽, Hove J. (A),
36', Delevic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Luts D. ↓, Cham P. A. ↑,
62', Guidetti J. ↓, Flataker E. ↑,
62', Hove J. ↓, Ayari T. ↑,
68', 0 - 2, Csongvai A. ⚽, Ayari T. (A),
75', Saliste J. ↓, Luts S. ↑,
75', Csongvai A. ↓, Ali A. ↑,
75', Benkovic F. ↓, Isherwood T. ↑,
83', Gilmore L. ↓, Hoim O. ↑,
83', Ojamaa H. ↓, Suso M. ↑,
83', Gueye M. ↓, Lilander M. ↑,
83', Thychosen M. ↓, Geiger Y. ↑,

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Kadrioru Staadion.

Paide is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

AIK's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

AIK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, AIK is the obvious favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
20.07.25	Paide LM - Narva Trans	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
17.07.25	Paide LM - Magpies	4:1 ✺
10.07.25	Magpies - Paide LM	2:3 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
04.07.25	Paide LM - Levadia Tallinn	0:3 ✺
28.06.25	Tammeka - Paide LM	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLW
- AIK Fotboll
Swedish Allsvenskan
20.07.25	Mjällby - AIK	2:0 ✺
13.07.25	AIK - Degerfors	3:0 ✺
06.07.25	Halmstad - AIK	2:0 ✺
29.06.25	AIK - IFK Göteborg	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.06.25	AIK - Sirius	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLWL

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