Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso (Coquimbo)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV


	Palestino		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	6	4.2	1.55	Watch
	6.25	4	1.51
	5.95	4.15	1.52
	6.33	4.13	1.55
	6.33	4.13	1.55
	6.5	4	1.44	Watch
	6.05	4.15	1.55	Watch
	5.8	4	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.15 (6.15)	4.1 ↓ (4.25)	1.52 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palestino
15.3%

Draw
23%

Flamengo
61.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.2%

22%

62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.8%

24.2%

69.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palestino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Flamengo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	23.1%	76.9%

Palestino - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 54% – 99.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rigamonti C. (G) 3. Rojas B. 17. Roman I. 13. Suarez C. 28. Zuniga D. 23. Martinez Arce A. E. 5. Linares N. 10. Davila Carvajal M. 7. Carrasco B. (C) 27. Marabel J. 11. Benitez J.	1. Rossi A. (G) 43. Wesley 15. Fabricio Bruno 4. Leo Pereira 17. Vina M. 21. Allan 8. Gerson (C) 11. Everton 18. de la Cruz N. 27. Bruno Henrique 9. Pedro
Substitutes
14. Abrigo J. 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 22. Chamorro F. 26. Contreras D. (G) 8. Cornejo F. 2. Espinoza Hevia V. A. 18. Fuentes M. 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 15. Montes Romero F. T. 24. Palacio P. 19. Vejar B.	6. Ayrton Lucas 23. David Luiz 52. Evertton 10. Gabriel Barbosa 48. Igor Jesus 3. Leo Ortiz 19. Lorran 7. Luiz Araujo 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 20. Matheus Goncalves 2. Varela G. 29. Victor Hugo
Coaches
Sanchez P.	Tite

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Davila Carvajal M. ↓, Cornejo F. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Cornejo F. ⚽,
67', Allan ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
67', Bruno Henrique ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
73', Wesley 🟨,
75', Carrasco B. ↓, Palacio P. ↑,
75', Martinez Arce A. E. ↓, Abrigo J. ↑,
75', Vina M. ↓, Ayrton Lucas ↑,
76', Wesley ↓, Varela G. ↑,
77', Linares N. 🟨,
80', Rojas B. 🟨,
83', Benitez J. ↓, Fuentes M. ↑,
84', Rojas B. ↓, Ceza Gavilan A. A. ↑,
88', Gerson 🟨,
90+3', Ayrton Lucas 🟨,

Preview

Palestino is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Flamengo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Flamengo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Palestino have a series of home games.

In this match Flamengo is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Palestino won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Palestino won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Primera Division
03.05.24	Palestino - Deportes Copiapó	3:1 ✺
28.04.24	Deportes Iquique - Palestino	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.04.24	Palestino - Millonarios	3:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
21.04.24	Palestino - Universidad de Chile	2:2 ✺
17.04.24	Palestino - Huachipato	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLWTW
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.24	Flamengo - Amazonas	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.04.24	Flamengo - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.24	Bolívar - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Flamengo - Palestino	2:0
Copa Sudamericana
09.08.17	Flamengo - Palestino	5:0
05.07.17	Palestino - Flamengo	2:5
28.09.16	Flamengo - Palestino	1:2
21.09.16	Palestino - Flamengo	0:1

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