Match Info

FIFA Club World Cup - Round 1

Date: 15 June 2025, Sunday

Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)

Referee: Said Martinez H. (Hon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Ariana
Africa	Azam Sports 2, Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 1, Showmax, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League, ZAP
Albania	DAZN, SuperSport 2
Angola	Z Sports 1, Z Sports 2
Argentina	DAZN App, DAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Mi Telefe
Australia	DAZN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Austria	DAZN
Belarus	DAZN, Okko Sport
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bolivia	Cotas, DAZN App, DAZN, ENTEL TV, Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports 2, Tigo Sports App, XDigital
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, Globoplay, Sky+, SporTV, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	DAZN
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	Migu, ZhiBo8
Colombia	DAZN
Costa-rica	TD +, TDMAX
Croatia	DAZN
Cyprus	DAZN
Czech-republic	DAZN, Nova Sport 3, Oneplay Sport 1, Oneplay Sport 4
Denmark	DAZN
Ecuador	DAZN App, DAZN, DirecTV Sports
El-salvador	Canal 4, TCS GO
Finland	DAZN, Veikkaus TV
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France, New World TV
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	DAZN
Guatemala	Azteca Guatemala
Honduras	Deportes TV, Telecadena 7 y 4
Hong-kong	DAZN
Hungary	DAZN
India	DAZN
Indonesia	DAZN
Ireland	DAZN Ireland
Israel	5 LIVE Israel, 5 SPORT Israel
Italy	DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	DAZN
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Latvia	DAZN
Lithuania	DAZN
Malaysia	DAZN
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	TVM Sport+
Mexico	DAZN App, DAZN
Montenegro	TVCG 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nicaragua	Canal 13
Nigeria	DAZN, Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean
North-macedonia	DAZN
Norway	DAZN, VG+
Panama	Nex
Paraguay	DAZN App, DAZN, Tigo Sports+
Peru	America TV GO, America TV, DAZN App, DirecTV Sports
Philippines	DAZN
Poland	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	DAZN, Pro Arena, Voyo
Russia	DAZN
Saudi-arabia	Shahid VIP
Serbia	DAZN
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	DAZN
South-africa	DAZN, Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	DGO Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play, DAZN
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	DAZN
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
Thailand	DAZN
Turkey	DAZN Turkiye, Tabii, TRT Spor
Ukraine	DAZN, Suspilne Sport
United-arab-emirates	DAZN
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	DAZN App, DAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Eventos Montecable, Flow, Montecable 1, NS Eventos, TCC 1, TCC 2
Usa	DAZN USA
Uzbekistan	DAZN, Zor TV
Venezuela	DAZN App, DAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter, Televen
Vietnam	DAZN, FPT Play
World	Sport 24


	Palmeiras		Porto

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	3.25	Watch
	2.45	3.25	2.9
	2.28	3.15	3.3
	2.31	3.3	3.5
	2.71	3.34	2.52	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.62
	2.41	3.38	3.14
	2.28	3.15	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.77)	3.25 ↓ (3.43)	3.07 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
39.4%

Draw
29.4%

Porto
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

27.8%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

28%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Porto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Porto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.9%	20.4%	32.7%

Palmeiras - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 22 - 45.8%). Porto will win (votes: 16 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 20.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 31.7% – 59.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Porto (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +0.25 - Porto (1.89) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH 0 - Palmeiras (1.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Porto (1.64) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Porto (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 14 - 53.8%). Porto (votes: 9 - 34.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Weverton (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 7. Felipe Anderson 8. Rios R. 5. Moreno A. 22. Piquerez J. 41. Estevao 18. Mauricio 9. Vitor Roque	14. Claudio Ramos (G) 52. Fernandes M. 97. Pedro J. 5. Marcano I. (C) 23. Joao Mario 22. Varela A. 17. Veiga G. 74. Moura F. 10. Vieira F. 86. Mora R. 9. Samu
Substitutes
40. Allan 3. Bruno Fuchs 42. Flaco Lopez 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 2. Marcos Rocha 32. Martinez E. 12. Mayke 13. Micael 10. Paulinho 23. Raphael Veiga 39. Thalys 17. Torres F. 6. Vanderlan	47. Alarcon A. 70. Borges G. 19. Danny Namaso 6. Eustaquio S. 51. Fernandes D. (G) 20. Franco A. 27. Gul D. 68. Oliveira A. 4. Otavio 11. Pepê 24. Perez N. 25. Perez T. 15. Sousa V. 7. William Gomes 12. Zaidu
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Anselmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Felipe Anderson 🟨,
15', Fernandes M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Gomez G. 🟨,
64', Abel Ferreira 🟨,
65', Felipe Anderson ↓, Paulinho ↑,
65', Mauricio ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
65', Estevao ↓, Allan ↑,
67', Veiga G. ↓, Pepê ↑,
77', Vitor Roque ↓, Flaco Lopez ↑,
77', Mora R. ↓, Eustaquio S. ↑,
77', Joao Mario ↓, Perez N. ↑,
82', Varela A. ↓, Perez T. ↑,
82', Vieira F. ↓, Franco A. ↑,
87', Rios R. ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
90+1', Perez N. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Palmeiras have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Porto is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Porto: Grujic M. (Heel Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
01.06.25	Cruzeiro - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.05.25	Palmeiras - Sporting Cristal	6:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWLWW
- FC Porto
Club Friendly
08.06.25	Porto - Riga	0:2 ✺
31.05.25	Wydad Casablanca - Porto	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
17.05.25	Porto - Nacional	3:0 ✺
11.05.25	Boavista - Porto	1:2 ✺
02.05.25	Porto - Moreirense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWWWW

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