Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 5 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Olympic Stadium of Athens (Athens)

Referee: Marchetti M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	ESPN+, SportsEngine Play


	Panathinaikos		CSKA 1948 Sofia

	1	X	2
	1.27	4.75	9.50	Watch
	1.28	5.25	9.25
	1.21	6.00	12.50	Watch
	1.26	5.32	14.66
	1.2	6.18	14.88	Watch
	1.24	4.65	14.00
	1.30	5.33	10.10	Watch
	1.27	5.20	9.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.34)	5.34 ↑ (4.1)	11.84 ↑ (8.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Panathinaikos
74.6%

Draw
17.5%

CSKA 1948 Sofia
7.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67%

21.9%

11.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.5%

21.1%

10.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Panathinaikos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Panathinaikos's performance.

CSKA 1948 Sofia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Panathinaikos than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Panathinaikos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CSKA 1948 Sofia than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	30.8%	0%

Panathinaikos - CSKA 1948 Sofia Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Panathinaikos will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Panathinaikos: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pena I. (G) 19. Tsapras T. 6. de Vrij S. (C) 55. Van Drongelen R. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 4. Chirivella P. 8. Jagusic A. 22. Camara E. 28. Pellistri F. 74. Rastoder E. 10. Andino S.	1. Marinov P. (G) 2. Medina D. 4. Hoffmann A. 3. Dvali L. (C) 22. Gasevic O. 67. Frederic 33. Cuellar H. 8. Zemzemi M. 11. Rusev G. 30. Meyer J. 9. Iliev A.
Substitutes
44. Biniaris P. 12. Chaves L. (G) 16. Gnezda Cerin A. 3. Katris G. 18. Kontouris S. 70. Kotsaris K. (G) 30. Kyriopoulos G. 20. Taborda V. 5. Touba A. 11. Zaroury A.	19. Boychev M. 31. Bozhev A. (G) 93. Diallo M. 77. Franco E. 96. Grivic D. 23. Krebs F. 6. Parkhomenko E. 13. Sheytanov D. (G) 20. Sobrero B. 15. Soltani F. 14. Strinski K. 34. Vitanov P.
Coaches
Neestrup J.	Vasev Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 1 - 0, Jagusic A. ⚽, Andino S. (A),
31', 1 - 1, Rusev G. ⚽, Cuellar H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Cuellar H. 🟨,
60', Pellistri F. ↓, Taborda V. ↑,
67', Iliev A. ↓, Diallo M. ↑,
67', Camara E. ↓, Gnezda Cerin A. ↑,
67', Andino S. ↓, Zaroury A. ↑,
69', Tsapras T. 🟨,
74', Cuellar H. ↓, Franco E. ↑,
85', Jagusic A. ↓, Kontouris S. ↑,
85', Tsapras T. ↓, Katris G. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

CSKA 1948 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Panathinaikos is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Panathinaikos won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Including home match between the teams, Panathinaikos won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Panathinaikos: 3.5%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Panathinaikos FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Panathinaikos - Paksi SE	2:2 ✺
23.07.26	Paksi SE - Panathinaikos	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.26	Rapid Wien - Panathinaikos	4:0 ✺
11.07.26	Panathinaikos - Grasshoppers	3:0 ✺
04.07.26	Ajax - Panathinaikos	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWLWW
- CSKA 1948 Sofia
Bulgarian Parva Liga
31.07.26	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Arda Kardzhali	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.07.26	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Spartak Trnava	1:0 penalties ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
25.07.26	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Botev Vratsa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
22.07.26	Spartak Trnava - CSKA 1948 Sofia	0:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
17.07.26	Spartak Varna - CSKA 1948 Sofia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
05.07.23	Panathinaikos - CSKA 1948 Sofia	1:0

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