Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 7 November 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Apollon Arena (Limassol) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Robertson D. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Finland	19:45	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 16
Iceland	17:45	Viaplay
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect
Kazakhstan	23:45	Qazsport
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect
Myanmar	00:15	Canal+ Myanmar
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 16
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	00:45	beIN Connect
United Kingdom	17:45	Discovery+ UK
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
International	17:45	Disney+


	Paphos		Astana

	1	X	2
	1.22	5.75	15
	1.22	5.5	11.5
	1.22	6	13
	1.24	5.89	14
	1.23	5.86	12.22	Watch
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.25	6.1	13.4
	1.22	6	13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.55)	5.64 ↑ (3.85)	12.33 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paphos
75.5%

Draw
16.8%

Astana
7.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.4%

23.5%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

22.4%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paphos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paphos's performance.

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Astana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (-14.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paphos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Astana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.5%	14.7%	11.8%

Paphos - Astana Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Paphos will win (votes: 25 - 75.8%). Astana will win (votes: 4 - 12.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 12.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paphos: 61.2% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ivusic I. (G) 7. Bruno 23. Luckassen D. 5. Goldar D. 19. Silva J. 30. Dragomir V. 26. Sunjic I. 8. Quina D. 88. Pepe 10. Jairo (C) 22. Tankovic M.	74. Seysen M. (G) 15. Beysebekov A. (C) 22. Marochkin A. 4. Bystrov M. 27. Dosmagambetov T. 72. Basmanov S. 8. Kuat I. 19. Osei B. 21. Astanov E. 11. Ahanonu N. F. 81. Karimov R.
Substitutes
33. Anderson Silva 77. Correia J. 70. Ilia M. 11. Jaja 9. Leo Natel 93. Michail N. (G) 25. Name M. 2. Pileas K. 45. Rafael Pontelo 83. Theodoulou P. (G)	71. Anuarov S. 53. Berezutskiy A. 47. Mamontov M. 96. Mustafin B. 52. Tokenov T. 55. Zarutskiy A. (G) 97. Zhaksylykov N.
Coaches
Carcedo J.	Babayan G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Kuat I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Seysen M. 🟨,
57', Quina D. ↓, Jaja ↑,
68', Silva J. ↓, Correia J. ↑,
68', Bruno ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
87', 1 - 0, Anderson Silva ⚽, Jaja (A),
88', Basmanov S. ↓, Zhaksylykov N. ↑,
90+1', Jairo ↓, Name M. ↑,
90+1', Karimov R. ↓, Mustafin B. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Apollon Arena.

Paphos is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Astana is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Astana could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Paphos is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paphos FC
Cypriot First Division
03.11.24	Paphos - Omonia Aradippou	4:0 ✺
28.10.24	Omonia 29is Maiou - Paphos	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	Paphos - Heidenheim	0:1 ✺
Cypriot First Division
19.10.24	Paphos - Karmiotissa Pano Polemidion	4:0 ✺
06.10.24	Enosis Neon Paralimni - Paphos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWW
- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
03.11.24	Tobol Kostanay - Astana	1:0 ✺
30.10.24	Astana - Atyrau	3:2 ✺
27.10.24	Astana - Aktobe	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	The New Saints - Astana	2:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
20.10.24	Yelimay Semey - Astana	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWLW

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