Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 28

Date: 31 March 2025, Monday

Location: Stade Charlety (Paris)

Referee: Rosier E. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Paris FC		Caen

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.51	4.1	6.25
	1.43	4.5	6.8
	1.68	3.82	4.91
	1.44	4.47	6.72	Watch
	1.5	4	6.5
	1.5	4.49	6.74	Watch
	1.43	4.5	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.68)	4.28 ↑ (3.69)	6.4 ↑ (4.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris FC
63.2%

Draw
22.1%

Caen
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

25.4%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

24.4%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paris FC's performance.

Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paris FC that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.8%	2.4%	9.8%

Paris FC - Caen Predictions

Users Predictions: Paris FC will win (36 of 41 users predict this - 87.8%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.78% – 97.82%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Nkambadio O. (G) 17. Camara A. 5. Mbow M. 15. Kolodziejczak T. (C) 28. De Smet T. 21. Lopez M. 13. Cafaro M. 4. Marchetti V. 7. Gory A. 20. Lopez J. 11. Krasso J.	16. Clementia Y. (G) 5. Moucketou-Moussounda A. 61. Traore B. 77. Gaucho Debohi D. 4. Henry V. 21. Grandsir S. 10. Brahimi B. 20. Lebreton N. 28. Lecoeuche Q. 24. Benrahou Y. 19. Mendy A. (C)
Substitutes
8. Doucet L. 19. Kante M. 10. Kebbal I. 2. Ollila T. 1. Riou R. (G) 18. Sissoko O. 39. Tourraine M.	23. Autret M. 18. Coulibaly K. 17. Kyeremeh G. 8. Le Bihan M. 35. Mandanda P. (G) 14. Rajot L. 25. Sy L.
Coaches
Gilli S.	Der Zakarian M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Kolodziejczak T. ⚽, Lopez M. (A),
28', Henry V. 🟨,
32', 2 - 0, Krasso J. ⚽, Cafaro M. (A),
44', 3 - 0, Cafaro M. ⚽, De Smet T. (A),
45+4', Moucketou-Moussounda A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Henry V. ↓, Sy L. ↑,
46', Moucketou-Moussounda A. ↓, Kyeremeh G. ↑,
55', Lebreton N. 🟨,
59', Cafaro M. ↓, Kebbal I. ↑,
60', 4 - 0, Krasso J. ⚽, Lopez M. (A),
69', Marchetti V. ↓, Doucet L. ↑,
69', Gory A. ↓, Sissoko O. ↑,
72', Grandsir S. ↓, Coulibaly K. ↑,
72', Brahimi B. ↓, Rajot L. ↑,
72', Benrahou Y. ↓, Autret M. ↑,
75', Krasso J. 🟨,
82', 4 - 1, Kyeremeh G. ⚽, Lecoeuche Q. (A),
88', Camara A. ↓, Tourraine M. ↑,
88', Krasso J. ↓, Kante M. ↑,
90+1', 4 - 2, Tourraine M. (Own goal),

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paris FC won 2.

Recent matches Paris FC is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Caen is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Paris FC is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Paris FC: Alakouch S. (Injury) Gueye L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Caen: Bolumbu D. (Injury) Gaudin J. (Yellow Cards) Lecoeuche Q. (Knee Injury) M'Vila Y. (Yellow Cards) Tome G. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Paris FC: Tourraine M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Caen: Thomas R. (Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Paris FC won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:11 (average 1.4:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Paris FC won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:8 (average 1.4:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris FC
French Ligue 2
15.03.25	Laval - Paris FC	3:0 ✺
08.03.25	Paris FC - Lorient	3:2 ✺
28.02.25	Annecy - Paris FC	2:3 ✺
21.02.25	Paris FC - Troyes	1:0 ✺
15.02.25	Dunkerque - Paris FC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWWL
- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
14.03.25	Amiens - Caen	2:1 ✺
07.03.25	Caen - Laval	0:1 ✺
28.02.25	Clermont - Caen	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Caen - Pau	2:2 ✺
17.02.25	Annecy - Caen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
17.08.24	Caen - Paris FC	0:2
09.03.24	Caen - Paris FC	0:1
05.08.23	Paris FC - Caen	0:2
15.04.23	Caen - Paris FC	3:1
27.08.22	Paris FC - Caen	1:1
19.04.22	Paris FC - Caen	1:0
20.11.21	Caen - Paris FC	0:1

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